MANILA, Philippines — Malacañang is hoping that the forecast of the University of the Philippines researchers that the country will see a flattening of the COVID-19 outbreak curve by the end of August or in September will happen.
“Sana nga po mangyari ‘yun dahil ang inaantay lang nga po natin pagdating ng katapusan ng buwan na ito ay kung mas mababa po ang marerecord na kaso kung ikukumpara natin sa naging forecast ng UP study group,” presidential spokesperson Harry Roque said in a televised Palace briefing.
“Kung hindi po ako nagkakamali parang 250,000 po ata ang kanilang forecast. We will reserve whether or not we will congratulate the Filipino people anew or better luck next time,” he added.
As of Sunday, there are 189,601 total confirmed COVID-19 cases nationwide, of which, 131,367 are recoveries and 2,998 are deaths.
The UP OCTA Research Team previously predicted that the total coronavirus cases in the Philippines will hit 220,000 by the end of August.
But in a television interview Monday morning, Dr. Guido David of the UP OCTA Research Team said they are seeing a downward trend in the infection rate of the disease in the country.
He explained that COVID-19’s reproduction rate — or the number of people infected by a coronavirus carrier — went down to 1.1 from 1.5 after Metro Manila and other high-risk areas were reverted to modified lockdown for two weeks.
READ: COVID-19 curve may flatten by end-August or September — UP expert
“Noong one week ago pa, nakikita namin bumababa na ‘yung trend sa buong Pilipinas, ‘yung reproduction number. Pati na sa National Capital Region bumababa na rin ‘yung R-naught natin. Ngayon halos malapit na sya sa 1. Ibig sabihin medyo malapit na tayo magflatten ng curve,” he noted.
But even after the curve was flattened, it would still take one to two months before the number of cases will reach a “very manageable level,” according to David.
‘Nothing is certain’
The Department of Health (DOH), meanwhile, said that “nothing is certain at this point in time” of the pandemic”, adding that the country would have to wait whether the prediction will come true.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire also cautioned the public against “interpreting” the epidemiological curve, noting that it has to be interpreted with the current capacity of the country’s healthcare system and the COVID-19 fatality rate.
“When we look at the (number of) cases, we also have to look at the capacity of the healthcare system alongside it and the number of deaths. So even though that we have the number of cases rising, we can see that our health system is managing and we can see that the deaths are not increasing and it is at a steady state where we have 1.58 case fatality rate,” Vergeire said.
“So kapag ganyan po ang nakikita natin, nama-manage naman po ang ating mga kaso sa ngayon, mas marami po ang mild at asymptomatic rather than those who are critical or severe,” she added.