At least 8 more storms expected before year ends

MANILA, Philippines — The country may see at least eight more storms until the end of this year, according to the state weather bureau’s tropical cyclone predictions based on frequency in the previous years.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said on Wednesday that for August, September, and October, two to three storms per each month may enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR).

For November and December, one or two storms each may be expected — which means that Pagasa expects, on a maximum, 11 tropical cyclones.

Rainfall predictions for August also showed that most of the country would receive a near-normal rainfall, while some parts of Eastern Visayas and Mindanao would get an above-normal amount of rainfall.

However, weather specialist Chris Perez clarified it does not necessarily mean that all of the predicted storms or typhoons would make landfall, as previous cyclone tracks showed that some moved along the country’s eastern seas without crossing the landmass.

“But not necessarily dalawa or tatlo po ‘yong magla-landfall.  Kung titignan man natin dito […] ‘yong buwan ng Agosto po, although ang dominant track ng bagyo ay tumatama dito sa may bandang Luzon area partikular sa Central at Northern Luzon, may mga ibang bagyo rin na posibleng lumihis,” Perez said.

(But not necessarily two or three would make landfall.  If we would take a look at the previous patterns for the month of August, although the dominant track of the storms is to hit the Luzon area particularly Central and Northern Luzon, there are some that actually moved away.)

“Lumapit lamang sa kalupaan ng ating bansa at hindi maglandfall, bagkus lilihis patungo sa northeast palayo ng ating bansa,” he added.

(They made an approach towards the country’s landmass but did not make actual landfall, thus moving northeast away from the country.)

Meanwhile, Pagasa also noted that there is a 50 percent chance that a La Niña would occur by October or November 2020, as sea temperatures near the equator became a bit colder.

La Niña is defined as a cooler than average ocean water surface in the Pacific region, a lower than normal air pressure which contributes to the formation of more clouds that bring rains. [ac]