‘Sendong’ damage to trim GDP growth

Tropical Storm “Sendong,” which ravaged parts of the Visayas and northern Mindanao last December, likely cost the Philippines 0.181 percent of its potential gross domestic product for full-year 2011, according to estimates from the National Economic and Development Authority.

While the lives lost in the storm cannot be valued in terms of pesos, the impact assessment should at least spur all sectors to help create a safer country, officials and economists said.

The direct and indirect damages may reduce economic growth by 0.115 percentage points of GDP. This effect may be shared between 2011 and 2012 due to “the spillover effect,” NEDA assistant director-general for policy and planning Ruperto P. Majuca said in an interview.

NEDA assessed damages in terms of direct (farm output, infrastructure, physical property) and indirect (work disruption, community displacement) costs.

Economists said the impact is significant in a low-growth year like 2011 and that it may take years for survivors to fully recover. More importantly, however, the tragedy should move the national and local governments to create a multi-agency, multi-level program that will minimize loss of lives and physical damages in future typhoons, they said.

“Imagine doing a major reconstruction work in all natural calamity-risky areas, starting with NCR (National Capital Region),” Dr. Benjamin E. Diokno of the UP School of Economics said via text message. “There has to be strong national-local policy coordination.”

The national government should take the lead in the design and financing of a major disaster preparedness infrastructure while local governments should raise matching funds out of their internal revenue allotments, Diokno said.

NEDA, for its part, recommends integrating geohazard maps (such as that from the Environment Department’s Mines and Geosciences Bureau) with land use and disaster risk warning systems of local government units (LGUs), among others, Majuca said.

Mindanao contributes about a fifth of the country’s GDP, based on data for the past eight years, according to the National Statistical Coordination Board.

Sendong, the 19th tropical cyclone to hit the country in 2011, hit Cagayan de Oro and Iligan cities in Northern Mindanao and Dumaguete City in Negros Oriental the hardest and inflicted damages as far away as MIMAROPA and the Bicol region. /INQUIRER