It’s anybody’s race in Manila

Three months away from the start of the period for the filing of certificates of candidacy in the first week of October, the City of Manila sizzles with volatile political realignments.

Last-termer Mayor Joseph “Erap” Estrada, ex-Mayor Alfredo Lim and Social Welfare Usec. Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso are the protagonists in the mayoral race.

In 2016, Erap won by just  2,685 votes over Lim, down from a margin of 35,389 votes in 2013. In both elections, Erap had the backing of Iglesia Ni Cristo. Big questions remain: What if Erap didn’t have the INC’s backing both times? Was Manila included in the alleged “Smartmagic” special operation in 2016? Did Lim benefit from this?

Moreno’s local party Asenso Maynila propelled him to victory along with 22 councilors and two congressmen. When he was elected vice mayor in 2013, Isko had more votes than Erap.

The elections in the city in May 2019 will definitely be a colossal clash with Erap’s machinery/money, Lim’s loyalist voters and financial/logistical diehards and Isko’s councilors/popularity.

Who will get the support of INC? Who will be blessed with the President’s endorsement? Will Isko reduce Erap’s votes and help Lim win? With three candidates for the mayoral seat, will Erap have the advantage and win? Or will Isko finally prevail?

The vice mayoral race is lava-hot with incumbent Honey Lacuna-Pangan reportedly agreeing to be Isko’s running mate. Erap wants former rival Amado Bagatsing or Bagatsing’s daughter, Rep. Kristal, for vice mayor. Lim is wooing last-termer 2nd District Rep. Carlo Lopez to run alongside him, an astute move, since the Lopezes remain the only political family with two solid districts. A candidate who runs with Carlo has a better chance of winning.

Congressional contests will also be interesting.

The fight for the first district will be between Rep. Manny Lopez and former Rep. Benjamin “Atong” Asilo. Lopez soundly thrashed Atong’s brother, Roberto, in 2013.

In the second district, successful businessman Alex Lopez, the political strategist of his dad, ex-Mayor Mel Lopez, hopes to replace cousin Carlo. Alex will be battling top councilor Rolan Valeriano in the district where the Lopezes have been undefeated for 28 years.

The third district saw the fall of former Rep. Harry Angping in 2016 who lost to actor John Martin “Yul Servo” Nieto by only 7,717 votes. Will Servo beat Harry again? There are rumors that Harry will not be overconfident this time.

In the vote-rich fourth district, a matchup is shaping up between Rep. Edward Maceda and former Rep. Trisha Bonoan-David. Maceda beat Trisha’s sister, Annie, by a mile in 2016.

In the fifth district, party-list Rep. Lito Atienza is running against the incumbent, Rep. “Kristal” Bagatsing. Her father, Amado, may be forced to protect his district and face Lito head-on. Kristal could end up being Erap’s vice mayor while  Lito’s son, Ali Atienza, might  move to his dad’s party-list.

It’s anybody’s race in the sixth district with Rep. Sandy Ocampo graduating. For Pastor Benny Abante, it’s possible the third time’s the charm, having already lost twice. However, he will be pitted against popular Councilor Cassy Sison and newcomer Yvette Ocampo, Sandy’s sister.

Political power means everything in Manila which has a yearly budget of P14 billion.

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