MANILA, Philippines -- Martial law, rather than Charter change, is more likely to happen under President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's rule, a former member of her inner circle said.

Former Speaker Jose De Venecia said there were two instances that could trigger a martial law declaration: the escalation of deadly bombings and a failure of the 2010 elections.

Another issue preoccupying the President's allies and spooking her critics is the move in the House of Representatives to convene as a constituent assembly and pass proposed amendments to the Constitution even without the participation of the Senate. But some proponents of the move have conceded that the Senate's participation was needed, while the Senate has rejected the idea of a constituent assembly.

If the bombings escalate or move to key places, these could cause chaos that the President could use to justify a martial law, De Venecia said.

“Which is likelier? Martial law,” De Venecia said over dinner with editors of the Philippine Daily Inquirer (parent company of INQUIRER.net) on Tuesday. “That's a very real option.”

Asked what he thought would be the basis for such a declaration, he replied: “If there's chaos, if there's chaos in Metro Manila. It's so simple... Didn't they bomb Congress?” He was referring to the 2007 blast that rocked the House of Representatives.

He said that in the recent spate of bomb-related incidents in Metro Manila, the administration, or people close to it, planted explosives that hurt no one, such as the bomb that went off at the Office of the Ombudsman on a Sunday and those found unexploded in two other places in Quezon City.

The people behind these incidents “were preparing the ground for martial law,” he added.

De Venecia, however, said he believed the administration had nothing to do with the explosions in Mindanao, which he attributed to terrorists.

De Venecia also cited the early retirement of General Alexander Yano as chief of staff of the Armed Forces as part of the possible martial law scenario.

The temporary replacement of Interior Secretary Ronaldo Puno by Public Works Secretary Hermogenes Ebdane, a retired Philippine National Police chief, also gave rise to suspicions that “martial law was not too far away,” he added.

It was the first time that another department secretary was made to concurrently head the interior and local government department, which controls the Philippine National Police.

Another opportunity for the President to declare martial law would be a failure of elections in 2010, since such a development could also foment unrest, De Venecia said.

“The big problem here is if for any reason there is a failure of elections, then there is martial law for sure. The chaos throughout the country will trigger a martial law declaration,” the former speaker said.

In case martial law is declared, Congress would have to vote jointly if it wants to extend or revoke it. A joint voting scheme would give the administration-dominated and much bigger House of Representatives the upper hand over the Senate.

De Venecia said martial law could strengthen the President's hold on Congress.

“But you know, even without martial law, she has control of the House. So if she declares martial law, her control of the House will be near total. Right now without martial law she gets away with murder, the dismissal of impeachment cases, resolutions that are out of this world,” he said.