MANILA, Philippines?Ill winds of summer portentous of the government's capacity to ride out the gathering storm over the spiraling food prices are blowing from the opinion polls.
The portents come from the March 28-31 Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey which found that President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's net satisfaction rating had dropped to -26 percent in the first quarter, down from the 2005 levels when the administration was rocked by the so-called Garci tapes political crisis, which eroded the legitimacy of her administration.
The dip could not have come at a worse time for the government when it faces the dangerous threat of public unrest exploding into violence over the rising price of rice. It signifies that the government is critically short of political capital and of public confidence needed to calm public anxiety over rice shortage in the coming three months of lean rice supply.
The lengthening queues of poor customers at the National Food Authority outlets selling government-subsidized price at P18.25 a kilo are growing restless as panic buying sets in to stock up supply for the lean months. These tensions in the rice queues have fanned fears of rioting similar to those that have erupted in recent months in parts of Asia and Africa by the poor badly hit by high food prices, pushed up by food shortages.
The SWS survey found that the President's March 28-31 ratings were below those of the past two years, which ranged between -12 and -33 percent, and was more in line with her 2005 ratings. Her ratings declined outside Manila, the center of political unrest against the administration since the disputed 2004 presidential elections.
In the Visayas, Ms Arroyo's electoral bailiwick, her net satisfaction rating dropped to double digits, -15 percent, down from -9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007. For the rest of Luzon, excluding Metro Manila, her net satisfaction rating dropped to -25 percent in the first quarter from -12 percent, while in Mindanao, it dropped to -33 percent from -20 percent.
The survey found that the President had also lost ground in rural areas where her net satisfaction rating dropped to -26 percent from -8 percent. In the urban areas, the drop was more slight, to -27 from -23 percent. These ratings have been attributed to the Garci tapes scandal and to a number of corruption scandals.
Result of tough decisions
The administration has brushed off these perennially rock-bottom negative ratings as consequences of tough decisions that had led to dramatic gains in economic growth.
It has asked the public to focus on these gains, most of all, the 7.3-percent gross domestic product in 2007, the highest achieved by the country in 30 years.
The administration said the President "takes comfort in knowing that our country is on the move" and claimed that "people are benefiting from [these reforms and gains]." If this argument had failed to lift her net satisfaction rating, there is even more doubt now over whether it is effective to provide her with the political capital she badly needs to avert a potentially explosive crisis posed by the increasingly angry and impatient queues at public rice distribution centers.
The rice queues represent an entirely different set of issues from those involving allegations of election vote-rigging and corruption. They hit the jugular of the poor ? their stomachs and pockets.
The new survey results came amid reports that the government was meeting difficulties in procuring emergency rice supplies from the tightening rice export market to meet immediate local buffer needs.
Arroyo job on the line
These followed dire predictions from Darren Cooper, a senior economist with the International Grains Council in London, that the Philippines is expected to pay around $1,000 per metric ton, cost and freight, at last week's tender and might pay an even higher price at its next tender in May.
"It will be $1,500 to $1,600 in May," he said. "They have to feed the population. The President's job is on the line." This remark disturbed the administration because it hit a raw nerve represented by the desperate effort of the government to procure emergency rice supplies to avert street disorders.
Doubtful supply
At no time since the 2005 crisis sparked by the Garci tapes has the President faced a more volatile crisis brewing from the threat of being overthrown by violence from hungry poor people at the rice rationing lines. This has forced the administration to issue a statement that the tight supply of rice worldwide would "not cause riots and unrest" in the country. It assured the people of a "stable supply and its efficient distribution."
The assurance of a "stable supply" became doubtful as NFA officials reported last week that international rice traders that had told Filipino officials at Thursday's tender there was no more rice available to fill the Philippines' orders. Press reports said traders were seeking a price higher than $872.50 to $1,220 per ton offered by the NFA. At that offer, the landed cost of imported rice would hit almost P49 a kilo, an NFA official said.
The Philippines has secured contracts for the supply of about 1.1-1.2 million metric tons, which is expected to arrive within the first half of the year. The NFA seeks to import 2.1 million MT to fill the local production shortfall to meet the country's ride needs for 2008. A new tender is scheduled on May 5 for the delivery of 500,000 MT to meet the immediate short-term needs to avert shortages.
Calm deceiving
Surprisingly so far, there have been no calls for the resignation of the President, as there were in 2005. But this calm can be deceiving. The volatility of the unrest at the rice lines is such it needs only a minor scuffle to spark rioting. That's what Darren Cooper of IGC meant when he warned that the President's job "is on the line."
This is what makes the emergency procurement represented by the tenders in May extremely critical. But this situation has caught the government ill-prepared with any political capital of public confidence to avert a full-blown violent explosion on the rice lines.
Its credibility is at rock bottom.
