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US employment improves, recovery seen forthcoming

By Rob Lever
Agence France-Presse
First Posted 01:13:00 12/05/2009

Filed Under: Foreign affairs & international relations, Employment

WASHINGTON - The US labor market saw a dramatic improvement in November as the number of jobs lost narrowed to 11,000 and the unemployment rate dipped to 10.0 percent, official data showed Friday.

The Labor Department figures showed a massive improvement from October and earlier months, suggesting the economy is nearing job growth needed to sustain a fragile recovery.

"This is another signpost that the recession is over, even if a vigorous recovery is not yet assured," said Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC World Markets.

"We're still quite a way from the 150,000 jobs a month and above to consistently bring the unemployment rate down. But I think we will start to see some positive net hiring in the first quarter and that will serve as a buttress against a drop back into recession."

The Labor Department revised its data from the prior two months to show fewer job loses than earlier estimated -- 111,000 losses in October instead of 190,000 and 139,000 in September instead of 219,000.

The White House said the figures showed the economy moving in the right direction.

"I think that the numbers today show that we continue to make much-needed progress in getting this economy going again and in getting the right trend going in hiring," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said.

Christina Romer, head of President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Advisors, offered guarded optimism, noting that jobs figures were "volatile and subject to substantial revision."

The report was far better than analyst expectations for a loss of 125,000 jobs and a jobless rate unchanged from October at 10.2 percent.

"This report, despite its unevenness, will likely create some real euphoria in the investor community," said Joel Naroff at Naroff Economic Advisors.

"It is the first time we can start thinking that the job situation may be turning around with some gusto."

The report showed the goods-producing sectors lost 69,000 jobs including 41,000 in manufacturing and 27,000 in construction.

But services -- which represents the largest number of jobs -- saw growth of 58,000 jobs. Within services, retail trade lost 15,000 jobs but professional and business services added a hefty 86,000 while education and health services saw an increase of 40,000.

Weekly hours worked, sometimes seen as a proxy for economic activity, increased by 0.6 percent, while average hourly earnings rose 0.1 percent.

Sophia Koropeckyj at Moody's Economy.com said the increase in hours worked is "a good cyclical indicator."

"It is expected that employers will first extend hours before taking on new workers. This is a good first step," she said.

But she said wage growth was sluggish and that "this has implications for consumer spending" which accounts for two-thirds of economic activity.

"In addition, the labor force participation rate is at a 24-year low," she noted.

The report showed the labor force fell by 98,000 with so-called discouraged workers stopping their search for work, a factor that lowers the unemployment rate.

The employment picture remained weak in economically critical sectors such as retailing, manufacturing and construction, some noted.

"Where we saw gains was in temporary workers, education and health care," Naroff said.
"While the small drop in employment is good news, it is not clear that we are poised to see any major increase in payrolls anytime soon."

Nigel Gault at IHS Global Insight said the report nonetheless indicates "that we are nearer a bottom in the labor market that we thought."

A separate report showed US factory orders up 0.6 percent in October, extending a positive trend on gains in computers and electronics.

The US economy grew at a 2.8 percent annual pace in the third quarter, reversing four quarters of contraction in the worst recession in decades.

Yet many economists argue the recovery could be imperiled by high unemployment, by limiting consumer incomes and hurting confidence and spending.



Copyright 2012 Agence France-Presse. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


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