N.Korea crisis could spur action on Iran, say analysts – Analysis


VIENNA – With North Korea issuing apocalyptic threats of nuclear war in recent weeks, Western powers have been reminded of what could happen if they fail to find a solution to Iran’s disputed nuclear programme, experts say.

World powers “are now even more anxious not to have with Iran a situation like the one we have with North Korea,” Oliver Thraenert, head of the Centre for Security Studies at ETH Zurich, told AFP.

On Friday, Iran and the so-called P5+1 — the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia) plus Germany — met in Almaty for fresh nuclear talks in the hope of a breakthrough.

“The P5+1 will be even more mindful of the need to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis before it gets to the stage of North Korea and possessing a nuclear weapon, which would make the situation in Iran ever so much more complicated and dangerous,” said Mark Fitzpatrick of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

Whereas Pyongyang has already proven its nuclear might with three nuclear tests — including one as recently as February — the debate over Iran still revolves around whether it is developing an atomic bomb under the cover of its civilian nuclear programme.

Western powers have been pressing Tehran however to cut uranium enrichment and close a nuclear facility at Fordo to alleviate fears it is seeking the bomb.

North Korea’s current brinkmanship — even threatening a nuclear strike on the US — may not be “directly affecting” the Almaty talks, but “it certainly is in the minds of many of the participants,” Fitzpatrick told AFP.

Tehran denies it is seeking the bomb, insisting its nuclear programme is purely for civilian purposes.

But its continued efforts to enrich uranium to levels that can produce material for a bomb have seen it slapped by a series of UN and international sanctions that have hit the country hard.

Now the North Korean crisis could inspire Western powers, especially the United States, to try to restrain Iran with fresh sanctions, according to Fitzpatrick.

Israel, Iran’s arch enemy and the sole, though undeclared, nuclear power in the Middle East, could also take action. In the past, it has repeatedly threatened military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities.

“The North Korea situation will surely confirm the view in Israel that Iran cannot be allowed to produce nuclear weapons. And that whatever it takes should be undertaken to prevent that,” Fitzpatrick said.

Even as Western powers seek to contain Iran, the lack of positive results from North Korea’s brazen drive for atomic power could encourage Tehran to slow or even scrap its own efforts.

Pyongyang has suffered under UN sanctions, the regime is isolated diplomatically and its economy is in shambles, noted Oliver Meier of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

“North Korea’s behaviour was not without consequences,” he told AFP.

“The current crisis in North Korea might still show Iran that possessing nuclear weapons can lead to isolation.”

On the other hand, the escalation between Pyongyang and Washington might teach Tehran a thing or two about how far it can go in defying the West, Thraenert argued.

“Iran has closely observed the situation in and around North Korea for years. Now of course Tehran will watch how much pressure is exerted on North Korea,” he said.

In the end, significant differences remain between Iran’s nuclear drive and that of North Korea, from Pyongyang’s one-man rule to its withdrawal from the non-proliferation regime.

Tehran, on the other hand, is still a party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and subject to inspections by the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.

“That’s why it’s so important that the international community send a clear signal to Iran that (possessing nuclear weapons) would be very costly,” said Meier.

“The path to the atomic bomb is not a decision that will enhance Iran’s role in the world.”

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  • Cobra

    Now that is enough reason to attack Iran,the US & it’s allies think they are developing nuclear weapons & they got a lot of oil to booth.Nah they will leave North Korea alone despite knowing fully well they have such weapons,no oil there & they might erase North Korea off the map but they might also have a bloody nose.

  • http://www.facebook.com/magno.badrina Magno Badrina

    its about time to up the ante against Iran and NOKOR, this countries has been saber rattling to often as they know that their threats are never acted upon. kaya lalong tumatapang dahil inaawat eh.

    • 33Sam

      What you don’t know is Iran has been attacked, bases hit and personel killed for going on years but Iran has kept quiet to keep this from escalating. All perpetrated by globalist eugenic forces, the same forces who pretend they killed Bin Laden. Its not as innocent as you think. Norkor is nothing but a psy-op complete with a clown dancing around pretending he’s in control when he was a mama’s boy raised in a Swiss private school and the less gay looking of his siblings to look like a “leader.” Not easy to link Norkor with Iran as different things are going on in those countries. Iran is actually suffering casualties and damage by the same people who want to kill off millions of Arabs in their plan to reduce the population of Central Asia. Meanwhile Norkor received $3B in cash from the United States delivered on a P140 cargo plane from Langley Virgina accompanied by Clinton Administration official Bill Richardson.

      Its not as simple as it looks. The same people who are against Iran have death planned for you. This is the more important issue. Why are these people behaving this way? Because the plan is to create a “new world order” so they can reduce the population of the world by 90% this 21st century. And the people behind this are the British Empire, the richest 20 families on the planet, the Rockefeller foundation, Ford foundation, JP Morgan, Bill Gates, etc., people you don’t seem informed enough to suspect. These so called “good” people do not care about you. They will pile everyone into one big war mess. Research this for yourself.

  • $42337655

    whatever happens to NoKor, Iran will continue what it is doing. Their mindset will not change. Israel will have to do something sooner or later.

    We in the free world are lucky that the U.S. is still strong, no matter her imperfections. Let’s face it, without the “police” we are all sitting ducks.

    • 33Sam

      The U.S. is strong? Free world? I think you need to define what “strong” and “free” means? If you mean strong that Sandy Hook was a government instigated false flag to push for gun control, yes, you need to be “strong” to kill innocent children just to prove a point and goad useful-idiots into pressing for gun control and then collect the “parents” of the dead victims and give them a free plane ride on AF-1. The U.S. is now the worse police state on the planet. Millions of Americans are buying guns by the millions getting ready for a civil war. The same people who are behind the psy-op of Norkor are getting ready to kill Americans and the U.S. govt, Homeland Security are all part of it! Lucky? I think you need a reality check. Iran has been attacked many times, bases blown up, people killed by the same people behind the fake zero dark 30 movie script, “they killed Bin Laden B.S.” Yeah Hollywood is controlled by these same globalist eugenicist super rich planet kings. But Iran is keeping quiet to protect itself even if they have suffered much. Iran and Norkor are different ends of the spectrum. Norkor gets $3B in cash flown to them on a P140 cargo plane accompanied by Clinton Admin guy Bill Richardson, while Iran has had funerals of its military leaders and citizens. Nazi Germany was a trial run for what they are now planning for CONUS.

      • $42337655

        I’d really like to believe all the conspiracy theories that you mentioned and abound, these days. However, I am not sure if they are verifiable.

        When I said strong, I meant, militarily and relatively…still. And free world, I meant, compared to most countries in dictatorship-run places like in the African continent and Middle East where strict adherence to their religion is paramount.

        Sandy Hook incident was a false flag? The killer was a troubled young kid, how were they able to make him act on that particular day ?

        NoKor activities run by the U.S. Homeland Security ? How does one verify this ?

        As to Hollywood being run by the elite Jews, we have no quarrel here. Most know that they not only run America, they influence and control it.

  • Noel

    What if Iran also attacks Israel simultaneous with North Korea’s attack on South Korea?

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