Brace for up to 2 cyclones this month

The weather bureau forecasts more rain showers and up to two tropical cyclones this month—a welcome respite from the sweltering summer heat.

In its monthly climate assessment and outlook released on Tuesday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) forecast an “increasing intensity of the southwest monsoon and widespread rain showers,” mostly in the western section of the country this June.

The Pagasa announced the onset of the southwest monsoon last May 24, and the beginning of the rainy season a week after.

This month, the country is expected to feel the effects of the ridge of a high pressure area, low pressure areas, the easterlies and the intertropical convergence zone, as well as one or two tropical cyclones that may develop or enter the Philippine area of responsibility, the Pagasa said.

Afternoon or early morning thunderstorms are also expected to increase this month due to the southwest monsoon, although a “monsoon break” may also occur and can last from several days to weeks.

The rainfall forecast for the month shows that most parts of the country, including Metro Manila, will likely receive near normal rainfall, while some parts of Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Bicol, Bohol and Siquijor are expected to experience above normal rainfall conditions.

Near average air temperatures are predicted over most parts of the country, except for Panay Island and portions of Mindoro and Masbate, which are forecast to experience slightly cooler than average air temperatures.

Pagasa administrator Vicente Malano said El Niño Southern Oscillation (Enso)-neutral conditions, or no El Niño or La Niña events, are prevailing in the tropical Pacific.

Based on predictions for the rest of the year from most climate models, it is as likely for the Enso-neutral conditions to continue as it is for a weak El Niño to develop this year.