Pagasa: Drought not as widespread

THE DROUGHT in the Philippines caused by one of the strongest El Niño episodes ever was not as widespread as feared, the weather bureau said Sunday.

This month, 19 provinces mostly in Mindanao will continue to suffer drought, while 13 other provinces will continue to suffer a dry spell due to months of severely reduced rainfall, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).

Pagasa last year forecast that around this time, 34 of the country’s 81 provinces would intensely feel El Niño’s impact.

“We expected many months ago that [the drought] would be very widespread. In actuality, it is better, there are only some provinces under drought,” said Anthony Lucero, Pagasa climate monitoring and prediction chief. “So it is not as widespread as forecast,” he added.

He said the outlook was better than the original forecast that up to 85 percent of the country, or 70 provinces, would experience drought at the height of the dry season in April.

Pagasa’s latest forecast indicated drought in 30 provinces by April. The number of affected provinces will go down to 23 by May. By June, three provinces are seen to remain under drought conditions.

The country may consider itself fortunate the raging El Niño, which started last year, wasn’t as bad although it was billed as one of the strongest on record, causing record-high warming over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Pagasa said the El Niño was starting to weaken and was expected to end by May.

“But even in its dying stage, it will enhance the dry season,” Lucero said.

Without typhoons expected in the next few months, drought-affected provinces cannot expect relief from reduced rainfall from March to May. Dona Z. Pazzibugan