House leader sees Binay win if both Roxas, Poe run

If President Aquino fails to convince either Interior Secretary Mar Roxas or Sen. Grace Poe to give way and support the other as presidential candidate for 2016, Vice President Jejomar Binay would have the clear advantage, House Majority Leader Neptali Gonzales II warned on Thursday.

“Basically, if Binay, Poe and Roxas ran, the Vice President (would have) a bigger chance (of winning) than in a one-on-one (contest). (Instead of focusing on one candidate), the votes of those who don’t like the Vice President would be divided,” Gonzales said.

The President, who had a dinner meeting on Wednesday night with Roxas, Poe and Sen. Francis Escudero, Poe’s preferred running mate, has yet to make a final decision on his anointed presidential bet.

Gonzales refused to say who should give way between Roxas and Poe, but he pointed out that the President and Roxas belonged to the ruling Liberal Party (LP), while Poe and Escudero were independent allies.

As party mates, Gonzales explained that Roxas could “easily” step aside like he did in 2010 when he gave way to then Senator Aquino as the LP standard-bearer.

Political ambitions

“Based on reports that I gathered, Senators Chiz and Poe are bent on running as independents. They are not part of a political party where you can talk about giving way,” the House official said. “But it’s also hard to interfere in the political ambitions of any one.”

Gonzales also downplayed Poe’s strong showing in surveys, saying that “surveys have historically shown that (the candidates’ popularity) would change (heading into the campaign).”

“We still don’t know if Grace will sustain her No. 1 position because once she makes her announcement (about running for president), she will be subject to more attacks. Whether these will have an impact (on her popularity) will be shown by the next survey,” Gonzales said.

While the President’s dinner-meeting with the trio had come up empty, the House leader said the fact that they were talking should be taken positively.

“It’s a good indication. I just hope they are able to resolve (who would give way). The earlier the better for everybody,” he added.

Quezon City Rep. Winston Castelo said Speaker Feliciano Belmonte Jr. himself could make or break the party coalition depending on his choice between Roxas and Poe.

Good personal relations

“Secretary Mar should not win only Malacañang’s nod but also the support of the Speaker who has influence over most LP converts and other members in the House coalition, especially members of the NP (Nacionalista Party), NUP (National Unity Party), and Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC),” said Castelo in a text message.

Castelo, an LP member, said that Belmonte had cemented his hold in the 290-member House because he “farms out the House committees and has established good personal relations with most Congress members.”

But Castelo said he hoped Belmonte would back whomever the President chose “to maintain the fragile coalition.”

Belmonte got a lot of flak after claiming that Poe’s presidential run was “unstoppable” especially if Roxas’ survey ratings do not improve in the coming months. A day later, the Speaker clarified that he believed Roxas was still the best man for the job.

Deputy Majority Leader Bolet Banal, an LP stalwart, said he was hopeful that Poe would emulate Roxas’ decision to give way to Aquino in 2010.

Grace to do a Mar?

“It is still very possible that Senator Grace will do a Mar Roxas, that she’ll give way to a greater goal while preparing herself to continue Daang Matuwid in 2022,” Banal said.

Another Roxas supporter, Deputy Minority Leader Carol Lopez, said that Roxas’ rising popularity in the provinces had not been “properly reflected” in the surveys.

“When I go around with him, shaking hands with the people, he feels their support for the 2016 election. The voters want continuity of programs, that is clear. They are wary of yet another disruption or distraction if the next President chooses to take off on a different path,” she added.

Lopez said Roxas had become more determined to seek higher office after his provincial visits.

“I have personally seen a stronger resolve from Secretary Mar, that this time his sacrifices would be more patriotic. His sacrifices would go beyond friendship and party loyalty. This time, his loyalty would be to the people, the kind of loyalty he learned the past six years,” she said.