Onset of El Niño delayed-Pagasa

MANILA, Philippines—The onset of the El Niño weather phenomenon may be delayed by a month because of the slower-than-expected warming of Pacific Ocean waters, according to the weather bureau.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) earlier predicted that El Niño, a phenomenon characterized by below-average rainfall and stronger storms, would hit the country in June or July.

Slightly decreased

“But right now, the probability has slightly decreased, so we’re adjusting our prediction to June, July or August,” said weather specialist Rusy Abastillas of Pagasa’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Center.

She said Pagasa made the adjustment after noting the slow warming of the Niño 3.4 region, an area spanning the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.

“We observed that it’s taking some time to hit the threshold level of 0.5 degree Celsius. It’s ranging from 0.2 to 0.4 degrees,” Abastillas said.

Abnormal warming
In the Philippines, El Niño, a phenomenon caused by the abnormal warming of the central and eastern Pacific waters, generally manifests in a dry spell, or below normal rainfall, usually following wet conditions.

Historically, the phenomenon has been known to cause fewer rain but generally stronger tropical cyclones.

Abastillas said El Niño’s effects would be most strongly felt in the last quarter.

“By September there will be areas experiencing below-normal rainfall, and by October, more areas will have less rain. But it’s not going to be nationwide. There will still be rain in other areas,” she said.