Aquino predicts big win

Confident of getting a majority in Congress, President Aquino is looking to tighten his grip on the Senate and House of Representatives to push for his legislative agenda in his last three years in office.

When the 16th regular session of Congress convenes in the third week of July, the first order of business for the administration coalition is to elect new leaders in the Senate and in the House from its ranks, Budget Secretary Florencio Abad said on Sunday.

This would mean electing a new Senate President to replace Juan Ponce Enrile, a key opposition leader, and reelecting Feliciano Belmonte Jr. as Speaker if he seeks the same post, said Abad, a senior political adviser to Aquino.

“A majority in the Senate will mean an excellent opportunity to install a new leadership in the new Senate from the administration coalition,” Abad said by phone.

The new majority has the prerogative to elect new leaders and Enrile,

being an experienced politician, would “understand the dynamics,” he said.

But Abad said the administration coalition would not force the leadership change during the last few days of the 15th regular session in June to avoid rancor.

Substantial majority

If the good showing of nine of the 12 Team PNoy candidates in the preelection surveys were any indication, “the prospects are quite good for a substantial majority,” said Abad, the ruling Liberal Party (LP) vice president for policy and platform.

Apart from the nine potential winners, Aquino’s allies in the chamber include Team PNoy campaign manager Sen. Franklin Drilon, Ralph Recto and Teofisto Guingona III, all of LP, and Sergio Osmeña, Lito Lapid, Pia Cayetano and Miriam Defensor-Santiago, according to Abad.

“Given the makeup of the PNoy coalition, the administration could have as many as 17 out of 24. Give or take one vote,” Osmeña said in a text message.

Drilon said: “We’re very optimistic we will have the majority. Even in the most conservative of surveys, we have at least nine in the winning column.”

Reelectionist Senators Loren Legarda, Francis Escudero, Alan Peter Cayetano, Aquilino Pimentel III and Antonio Trillanes IV, as well as former censors chief Grace Poe, the President’s cousin Bam Aquino, and former Representatives Juan Edgardo Angara and Cynthia Villar have consistently landed in opinion polls’ “winning circle.”

Left out were former Senators Ramon Magsaysay Jr. and Jamby Madrigal, and former Akbayan Rep. Risa Hontiveros.

“There’s still a good chance for the administration to sweep the race. Of course 9-3 is good enough; 10-2 is even better; 11-1 is difficult but possible; 12-0 is not impossible,” Abad said.

Abigail Valte, deputy presidential spokesperson, said Aquino was pushing for a “solid Senate” that would carry on his reform and good governance programs.

Overwhelming majority

Abad also predicted that the administration coalition would retain the majority in the House during the 16th regular session.

“LP fielded more than 100 candidates and we expect to see most of them winning in their districts. With the rest from the alliance, they would constitute the overwhelming majority. I think the prospects of a continuing leadership in the House are very good,” Abad said.

Political analyst Ramon Casiple said that if the President controlled both the Senate and the House, there would be “no talk of lame duck presidency.”

Priority measures

But Abad said becoming a lame duck did not concern Aquino.

“With the kind of presidency that we have, who has an unprecedented run of very high trust and approval ratings, he will continue to wield influence on the political process in the country. The fear of being lame duck should be the least of his worries,” the LP vice president said.

Apart from giving the administration a hold on the leadership in both chambers, the new majority would give the administration the opportunity to approve priority measures for the next three years that would “promote poverty-reducing, job-generating inclusive development,” Abad said.

“This will ensure continuity of the administration’s reform initiatives beyond 2016 by laying the foundation for the irreversibility of reform initiatives,” he said.

Next Senate leader

The new Senate leader would be decided by the coalition, which has to seek the advice of the President, Abad said.

Of Drilon as a prospective Senate leader, Abad said: “Considering that he has played a major role in passing not just the budget but the two most critical and controversial measures—the RH (reproductive health) and sin tax reform—he has therefore shown firm and effective leadership. That’s the reason he’s being considered a possible Senate President.”

Drilon, however, laughed off talk that he’d be the next Senate leader. He said 13 senators would decide who’d get elected Senate President.

New leaders are elected under a new Congress.

So, would Enrile be out as Senate President by July?

Abad said: “Considering that in this 2013 exercise, he has cast his lot with the opposition, with UNA (United Nationalist Alliance), and in a presidential system, if the majority prevails, it has the prerogative to lead. And he, being an experienced and veteran politician, he fully understands the dynamics.”

If Belmonte wins another term and seeks the speakership, he would get the support of the majority coalition, Abad said.

Coy about admin control

Drilon appeared to be coy about the administration holding sway over the Senate.

Just because administration candidates are expected to dominate the Top 12 of the senatorial race does not mean that Aquino plans to subjugate the chamber, Drilon told the Inquirer.

“No President has ever controlled the Senate. To (plan) so is wishful thinking,” he said.

He said it would be difficult for any President to even attempt given the unique mind set of a senator.

‘24 republics’

“Senators look at their institution as an independent unit. In fact, we always complain that the senators act as 24 separate republics. Like the President, they have nationwide constituencies…. Besides, senators survive on issues and not simply on pork barrel,” Drilon said.

Year-old speculations that Drilon would replace Enrile spread following observations that Enrile was not as cooperative in pushing for Malacañang’s legislative agenda as what Aquino’s allies had hoped.

This was shown when Enrile opposed the two bills passed in 2012—one increasing taxes on cigarettes and liquor, and the RH measure.

Drilon, however, said speculations about a plan to control the Senate would be farfetched since this had never been done “since the time of (the late President) Ferdinand Marcos.”

“Marcos could not control the Senate and (the late Sen. Benigno) Ninoy (Aquino Jr.) always fought him. (President) Cory (Aquino) could not get the new bases treaty ratified. (President Fidel Ramos) tried to amend the Constitution but had to resort to a people’s initiative that also failed to take off because the senators were not cooperative,” Drilon noted.

He added that then President Joseph Estrada and then President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo also encountered difficulties with senators.

“Even if it is possible to control the Senate, President Aquino is not the type to do so. Recall that when the Senate acted as a trial court for (former Chief Justice Renato) Corona, his conviction was not unanimous. We would not have voted 20-3 if Malacañang controlled the chamber,” Drilon said.

The President was very vocal in his dislike for Corona. Aquino even refused to be sworn in by the then Chief Justice during his inauguration on June 30, 2010.

“Six months after the impeachment trial, when we approved the sin tax bill, the vote was a close 10-9 and the vote on the RH bill was 15-8. So, in both political and economic issues, clearly there was no hand that controlled the voting,” Drilon said.

The senator added that once the 16th Congress rolled in, Aquino would rather “persuade and talk to each senator to push for his legislative agenda” than force the Senate to bend to his will.