Pagasa issues El Niño Alert; drought in PH now likely
MANILA, Philippines — The state weather bureau has issued an El Niño Alert, which means there is a high chance of dry spells and droughts in parts of the country.
In a statement on Wednesday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said that while the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Neutral prevails over the tropical Pacific, there is a 79% chance of the phenomenon emerging in the June–July–August 2026 season and may persist until early 2027.
“Based on the PAGASA ENSO Alert and Warning System, when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño, with a forecast probability of 70% or more within the next 2 to 3 months, an El Niño Alert is issued,” it explained.
READ: Pagasa: El Niño may develop August to October, intense habagat looms
“During an El Niño event, there is an increased possibility of drier-than-usual conditions, which can lead to negative impacts such as droughts and dry spells in some parts of the country,” it added.
Pagasa also said the above-normal rainfall conditions may still prevail over the western section of the country during the southwest monsoon or “habagat” season.
In a press conference, Pagasa Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis noted that Pagasa announced the end of La Niña last March 9, indicating a return to ENSO-neutral conditions.
She added that an El Niño Watch was issued last March 25, signifying an increasing probability of El Niño conditions as early as the July–August–September 2026 season.
READ: Pagasa declares end of La Niña, continues to monitor LPA outside PAR
Solis also said the El Niño event can start weak and may develop from weak to moderate, and from moderate to strong, but the possibility of it being a strong to very strong phenomenon is not ruled out.
Preparations for El Niño
Pagasa Deputy Administrator Dr. Marcelino Villafuerte said the Task Force El Niño will convene in the coming days to prepare for the possible emergence of the phenomenon in the next few months.
Villafuerte said there are two scenarios they must prepare for: excessive rainfall in the western section of Luzon during the June–July–August 2026 season or the “habagat” season while El Niño develops, and the reduced amount of rainfall during the latter part of the year.
Solis also said that the following rainfall outlook is expected from May 2026 to October 2026:
May 2026:
- Near normal rainfall for most of the country
- Below normal rainfall for some areas in Northern and Central Luzon
- Above normal rainfall for most parts of Visayas and Western Mindanao
June and July 2026:
- Near normal rainfall conditions across the country
August 2026:
- Near normal rainfall conditions for most parts of the country
- Below-normal rainfall conditions for Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao and Caraga Region
- Isolated patches of above normal rainfall over Northern and Central Luzon
September 2026:
- Near normal rainfall conditions across the country
- Below normal rainfall conditions in some parts of Northern Luzon
- Isolated patches of above normal rainfall in some parts of Central and Eastern Visayas
October 2026:
- Below normal to near normal rainfall conditions in most parts of Luzon and Visayas
- Near normal rainfall in Mindanao
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