OCTA Research: Metro Manila in a ‘severe outbreak’ of COVID-19 cases

MANILA, Philippines — Metro Manila is in a “severe outbreak” of COVID-19 cases based on metrics of US nonprofit COVID Act Now, said the independent analytics group OCTA Research on Tuesday.

“The average daily attack rate (ADAR) increased to 89.42, which is above the Covid Act Now threshold for a severe outbreak (greater than 75 per day 100k),” OCTA Research fellow Guido David said on Twitter.

Based on OCTA’s data, the ADAR of 89.42 from January 4 to 10 is higher than the 12.71 ADAR from December 28, 2021 to January 3, 2022. ADAR is the average number of new cases in a period out of 100,000 individuals.

NCR on a severe outbreak with ADAR of 89. HCUR likely to exceed 70% by next week. Reproduction number decreased slightly to 5.22. @dzbb @dzrhnews @allangatus @DZAR1026 @News5PH @NewsRmn @dwiz882 @dzme_1530khz @EagleNews @TheManilaTimes pic.twitter.com/ARPN5fUw2f

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) January 10, 2022

According to the group, the seven-day positivity rate in Metro Manila also increased from 20 percent to 48 percent. Positivity rate is the percentage of people who test positive for COVID-19 among all those tested.

“The reproduction number decreased to 5.22 from 5.65, which indicates the trend slowed down slightly. Hospital bed occupancy increased to 57% and is likely to exceed 70% next week. Overall, NCR (National Capital Region) is classified as very high risk,” David said.

Metro Manila currently has 95,714 active cases of COVID-19, based on the tracker of the Department of Health. A total of 18,629 new infections were recorded on Monday.

The country, meanwhile, has 157,526 active cases of the disease, including the record-high 33,169 new cases on Monday.

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JPV