NCR now at ‘low risk’ from ‘very low risk’ due to uptick in COVID-19 cases — OCTA

MANILA, Philippines — Independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research on Sunday said the National Capital Region is now at “low risk” from a “very low risk” for COVID-19.

OCTA fellow Guido David said the reproduction number (R0) in NCR is now at 0.85 as of December 23.

12.27.21 NCR now at low risk (from very low risk) as the 7-day average increased to more than 100 for the first time since Dec 3-9 @dzbb @allangatus @dzrhnews @DZAR1026 @News5PH @NewsRmn @ABSCBNNews @EagleNews @dwiz882 @PhilstarNews @dzme_1530khz @DrTonyLeachon @docbenjisays pic.twitter.com/FkZlAVFmRl

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) December 26, 2021

R0 (pronounced as r-naught) indicates how infectious a disease is. For instance, an R0 of 1 means that each carrier transmits the virus to one person. If the R0 is less than 1, such as the current number in NCR, each existing infection would cause less than one new infection, which means that the rate of infection is still slow.

The reproduction number increased after the seven-day average of new coronavirus cases in NCR increased to 116. David said the last time the 7-day average was above 100 was from December 3-9.

“Because of the increase in reproduction number, the NCR is now classified as low risk (from very low risk) using our metrics,” David said in a report posted in Twitter.

Despite the slight increase, the ICU occupancy remains very low, David added.

The Philippines reported a total of 2,838,640 infections, including 9,522 active cases, 2,777,918 recoveries and 51,200 deaths, according to the Department of Health.

READ: PH logs 433 new infections, same case count as Christmas Day — DOH

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