PH COVID-19 count may dip to 500 per day in December – OCTA

Dr. Guido David of OCTA Research. (Screenshot from INQSIDE LOOK)

MANILA, Philippines — The daily COVID-19 cases in the Philippines could decrease to less than 500 per day by December, Dr. Guido David, an OCTA Research fellow, said on Twitter  Sunday.

According to David, the average of new COVID-19 cases decreased from the 1,346 cases recorded from Nov. 14 to 20 to the 954 cases recorded from Nov. 21 to 27,

“If the trends continue, new cases are projected to decrease to less than 500 per day by the December holidays,” David said.

David explained that the one-week growth rate was at -29 percent, and the reproduction number stood at 0.34. Meanwhile, the incidence rate nationwide is less than one new case per day per 100,000 population, which is considered a low incidence rate.

In terms of deaths, the daily average from Nov. 21 to 27 was at 186. This, David said, is 20 percent lower than the previous week’s average at 233.

“The high number of deaths relative to the new number of cases is likely due to late reports of death,” David said.

11.28.21 The Philippines is now averaging less than 1000 new cases per day (as predicted), with a reproduction number of 0.34. The ADAR is now less than 1 per day per 100k, which means the country is low risk based on ADAR. @dzbb @dzrhnews @DZAR1026 @allangatus @News5PH @dwiz882 pic.twitter.com/7YVNoGI1g7

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) November 28, 2021

Active cases and status distribution

As of Nov. 27, moderate, severe, and critical (MSC) cases accounted for 45 percent of active cases. This may seem large, but  David explained that this was due to the number of cases still recorded from March 2020 to September 2021.

“Most of these cases should have already been resolved, i.e. recovered or died,” he said.

According to David, if the number of active cases dating from March 2020 to September 2021 had been excluded and only cases reported from October to November 2021 were counted, the number of active cases in the database would decrease from 17,052 to 8,937 — a reduction of 48 percent.

In the October to November 2021 cases, the distribution of cases was 9 percent asymptomatic, 78 percent mild, 7 percent moderate, 5 percent severe, and 1 percent critical.

“This distribution is close to being consistent with the distribution of cases by status typically observed in the Philippines,” David said.

“It is important to analyze the distribution of new and old active cases in order to understand that there has been no major shift in the health status of COVID-19 cases, and that majority of cases are still in the mild and asymptomatic category once old cases have been resolved,” he added.

Explanation for the high proportion of severe and critical among active cases. This white paper also shows that the number of active cases in the country should be much lower, by about 48% once old cases dating from March 2020 to Sept 2021 are resolved @dzbb @dzrhnews @allangatus pic.twitter.com/ETByDWwwiu

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) November 28, 2021

On Sunday, Nov. 28, the Philippines recorded 16,630 active cases, with only 838 newly reported cases — the lowest so far in 2021.

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