NCR positivity rate too high, monitor says

At least 13 street including Cherry Street in Sampaloc SIte II , Barangay BF Homes, Paranaque City is placed into granular lockdown due to increasing COVID-19 cases. INQUIRER PHOTO / RICHARD A. REYES

Independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research group on Thursday said the COVID-19 reproduction number in the National Capital Region (NCR) has dropped to 0.87 from the previous 0.94, but it is still unwise to presume that the worse is over.

Based on the group’s latest NCR monitoring report, despite the reproduction number being considered in the low risk range, NCR is still at high risk, since it has a critical average daily attack rate (Adar) and a high intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy rate.

“NCR remained at high risk, but could possibly improve to moderate risk within a week,” OCTA added. Of the 16 cities and one municipality in NCR, six are already at moderate risk, including Malabon, Manila, Navotas, Pasay, Pateros and Valenzuela. The rest are still at high risk level classification.

Meanwhile, Metro Manila’s Adar, or number of new daily cases for every 100,000 population for the week of Sept. 23 to Sept. 29 is 27.86, the group said. Twelve areas in NCR also have a critical Adar, while the remaining five are at high risk.

Above WHO standard

The seven-day average of new daily cases in NCR also decreased by 17 percent, while the positivity rate in the capital is at 18 percent, down from 21 percent the previous week, and lower than the national positivity rate of 22 percent.

However, the positivity rate both in NCR and in the entire country is still well above the 5 percent recommendation of the World Health Organization (WHO) to determine that the transmission of the virus is contained.

ICU utilization rate in NCR also remains high, with 75 percent of all ICU beds occupied. OCTA said all ICU beds in Parañaque and Taguig are 100-percent occupied, and therefore are at critical risk. Other cities with critical ICU utilization risk include Muntinlupa and San Juan.