COVID-19 cases in PH may reach up to 6,000 daily by end of March — OCTA

MANILA, Philippines — The country is projected to have 5,000 to 6,000 new COVID-19 cases per day by the end of March after it saw an increase in additional coronavirus cases being reported daily, the OCTA Research said Sunday.

OCTA Research said in its latest monitoring report that “based on the current reproduction number, NCR is projected to have 2,000 new COVID-19 cases per day by March 21 and 3,000 new cases per day by March 31, while the country is projected to have 5,000 to 6,000 new cases per day by the end of March.”

The research group bared this high projection after the Department of Health (DOH) reported on Saturday an additional 3,439 coronavirus cases, which brought the total cases in the country, including recoveries and deaths, to 591,138. The number for the new cases was the highest since mid-October.

There are now 43,323 active cases of COVID-19 in the country, according to DOH.

According to OCTA Research, the surge of infections in Metro Manila has accelerated as the region posted 1,464 new cases on Saturday.

It added that the capital region logged an average of 1,025 new cases per day over the past seven days covering February 28 to March 6, or an increase of 42 percent from the preceding week and 130 percent compared to two weeks ago.

The reproduction number, or the average number of persons who may be infected by one COVID-19 positive individual, in the region has also increased to 1.66, according to the research team.

“The last time the region had seen this rate of increase was in July [2020]. However, this surge is spreading more quickly than the July-August surge, and this suggests the possibility that the surge is driven by SARS-CoV-2 variants,” said OCTA.

“The original strain does not spread this quickly considering the health guidelines in place,” it added.

OCTA Research also noted that the positivity rate in Metro Manila increased to an average of eight percent over the past seven days, while the overall hospital bed occupancy was 44 percent and the intensive care unit occupancy was 53 percent as of March 5.

The research group further stressed that while Valenzuela City showed a decrease in new COVID-19 cases compared to the previous week, several local government units in the metropolis have posted upward trends.

In particular, “very sharp” two-week increases of more than 40 percent per week were observed in Quezon City, Makati, Taguig, Parañaque, Caloocan and Mandaluyong. Pasay City, with a very high 30 per 100,000 daily attack rate, Makati, Malabon and Navotas were still classified as high risk according to attack rate. However, the trends in Malabon and Navotas have slowed down.

Meanwhile, down in Central Visayas, the new COVID-19 cases in the cities of Cebu, Lapu Lapu and Mandaue are now on a downward trend. New cases in Davao City decreased, while Baguio City is now on an upward trend in new cases, according to the research group.

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