IN THE KNOW: Pyongyang’s new ICBM

Hwasong-15 —AP

TOKYO—North Korea released dozens of photos on Thursday of the Hwasong-15, a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) it claims can reach any target in the continental United States.

The photo dump, published in the paper and online editions of the ruling party’s official daily, is a gold mine for rocket experts trying to parse reality from bluster.

Their general conclusion is that the Hwasong-15 is bigger, more advanced and comes with a domestically made mobile launcher that will make it harder than ever to preemptively destroy.

But there’s a potentially major catch: The Hwasong-15 might not have the power to go much farther than the US West Coast if it is loaded down with a real nuclear warhead, not a dummy like the one it carried in its test launch on Wednesday.

Here’s a closer look:

The missile

North Korea’s new missile appears to be significantly bigger than the Hwasong-14 ICBM it tested twice in July. It dwarfs North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who stands about 170 centimeters tall.

In a tweet just after the photos were published, Michael Duitsman, a researcher at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California, said: “This is very big missile … And I don’t mean ‘Big for North Korea.’ Only a few countries can produce missiles of this size, and North Korea just joined the club.”

Size is important because a missile targeting the United States would have to carry a lot of fuel.

Duitsman also suggested the new ICBM appears to have a different engine arrangement and improved steering.

The launcher

North Korea boasted repeatedly in its announcement of Wednesday’s launch that the Hwasong-15 missile was fired from a domestically made erector-launcher vehicle. Its photos back that up.

Being able to make its own mobile launch vehicles, called TELs, frees North Korea from the need to get them from other countries, like China, which is crucial considering the tightening of international sanctions that Pyongyang faces.

TELs make it easier to move missiles around and launch them from remote, hard-to-predict locations. That makes finding and destroying the Hwasong-15 before a launch more difficult.

The payload

North Korea claims the Hwasong-15 can carry a “super-heavy” nuclear payload to any target in the mainland United States.

The reentry vehicle—the nose cone in the photo—does indeed look quite large. But the heavier the load the shorter the range.

Michael Elleman, a leading missile expert, has suggested in the respected 38 North blog that Hwasong-15’s estimated 13,000-kilometer range assumes a payload of around 150 kilograms, which is probably much lighter than any real nuclear payload the North can produce.

To get to the US West Coast, the North needs to keep that weight down to 500 kg.Whether it can do that remains questionable.

“Kim Jong-un’s nuclear bomb must weigh less than 350 kg if he expects to strike the western edges of the US mainland,” Elleman estimated. “A 600-kg payload barely reaches Seattle.”