The weather bureau advised the public to prepare themselves for more rains in August and September which are traditionally the months when the highest number of tropical cyclones enter or develop in the Philippine area of responsibility.
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) weather specialist Joseph Basconcillo said two to four tropical cyclones are expected to enter or develop this month, as well as next month, and following historical data, may likely take tracks affecting or crossing northern Luzon.
The tropical cyclones are most likely to enhance the effects of the southwest monsoon (“habagat”), Basconcillo said.
Most parts of northern Luzon and northeastern Mindanao, including most parts of Palawan and eastern Samar, are expected to experience above normal rainfall this month, Basconcillo said, while southern Luzon may experience near normal rainfall.
Basconcillo said from Aug. 2 to 8, Pagasa is already expecting above normal rainfall in northernmost parts of the country, and mostly normal rainfall conditions for the rest of the country.
The rainfall will peak in western sections of the country, with Basconcillo saying these areas may experience around 200 to 500 millimeters of rainfall for the whole month.
Basconcillo warned residents of flood-prone and landslide-prone areas to start preparing for rainfall effects, as the impacts of the rain would depend on the quality of drainage systems in an area, how urbanized the area is, or if the area is located near water bodies that may spill over.
The good news, however, is that it is highly probable that the country will not suffer El Niño or La Niña this year, with most climate models predicting a 50 to 55 percent chance of neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific.
As of Wednesday, the southwest monsoon is still the prevailing weather system affecting a large swath of the country and forecast to continue bringing cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and possible occasionally heavy rains and gusty winds due to thunderstorms over Luzon, Visayas and the regions of Caraga, northern Mindanao and Zamboanga Peninsula.
Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms will prevail over the rest of the country.
Meanwhile, Typhoon “Noru” remains outside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) as of Wednesday afternoon, with low chances of entering PAR, said weather forecaster Shelly Ignacio in a weather report issued at 5 p.m.
As of 3 p.m., Noru was located 1,540 kilometers east-northeast of extreme northern Luzon, packing maximum sustained winds of 160 kilometers per hour and gustiness of up to 195 kph.