Peace pact unlikely before 2019, communist rebels warn

Communist rebels waging one of Asia’s longest insurgencies said on Tuesday that a peace pact was likely not achievable before 2019, in a blow to the Philippine government’s hopes of securing a deal this year.

Ahead of fresh peace talks starting in Italy on Thursday, the communist-led National Democratic Front of the Philippines (NDFP) also warned that its forces on the ground were urging an end to a ceasefire as they had become frustrated with the government’s “broken promises.”

“The NDFP goes into the third round of formal talks in Rome determined as always to persevere with the peace talks but increasingly troubled by
the other party’s sincerity,” the communists’ chief negotiator, Fidel Agcaoili, said in a statement.

National democracy

The communists have been waging their “national democratic revolution” since 1968 to overthrow a capitalist system that has created one of Asia’s biggest rich-poor divides.

At least 30,000 people have died in the conflict, according to the military.

President Duterte, who describes himself as a socialist, has made ending the rebellion one of his top priorities.

In a statement on the Jan. 19-25 talks in Rome, presidential peace adviser Jesus Dureza said Mr. Duterte “instructed the government panel to work for an early settlement of the issues as he calls on the nation to provide support to the efforts to ultimately bring peace in the land.”

Mr. Duterte launched the peace process soon after he took office in June last year and installed three communists in his Cabinet.

Temporary ceasefire

Both sides agreed to a temporary ceasefire during the first round of talks in Norway last August. The talks are being facilitated by the Norwegian government.

The Philippine government said then it was aiming for a
final peace deal within 12 months.

But Agcaoili said the communists would need at least two more years after negotiators agreed on a series of economic and political reforms before even beginning “serious discussions” on a final peace pact.

Those economic and political reforms have yet to be agreed, and are meant to be discussed in Rome.

Charter referendum

Agcaoili told the Inquirer that there could be a referendum on a new Constitution that would incorporate the changes toward a federal form of government with all the safeguards on civil liberties, national sovereignty and against political dynasties.

He said a final peace agreement would be signed once these things were in place.

Familiar grievances that derailed peace efforts under previous Presidents appear to have returned to haunt the current negotiations.

The communists have long demanded that hundreds of jailed communists be released before they will consider making major concessions in the talks.

Mr. Duterte released 18 top leaders to kickstart the peace process but the communists, are demanding another 434 rebels be freed immediately.

Last month, the President said he did not want to release the rebels straight away, describing the negotiations as a “poker game.”

Aces in prison

“My aces are in prison,” he said, referring to the jailed communists. “If I released them
all my cards would be lost. There would be nothing else to talk about.”

The government’s chief negotiator, Labor Secretary Silvestre Bello, gave a more upbeat assessment of the peace process.

He told Agence France-Presse (AFP) on Tuesday that the government was still sticking to its time frame to secure a peace deal of between nine and 12 months from the start of the talks in August last year.

Bello said he had told the communists it was to their advantage not to delay, or they would risk not being able to finalize a peace pact before Mr. Duterte’s six-year term ended in 2022.

In his statement, Dureza was more cautious, saying the government “views with optimism, although with managed expectations, positive outcomes in the forthcoming resumption of peace negotiations.”

Peace talks agenda

He said the talks “hope to tackle the still unfinished discussions” on a proposed bilateral ceasefire and the releases of prisoners.

Also to be discussed are socioeconomic reforms, constitutional and political reforms, end of hostilities and disposition of forces, he said.

“These issues, although difficult, are surmountable with both sides sharing common aspirations for peace,” Dureza said.

Agcaoili said the prospect of a permanent ceasefire was “growing dim” because of the prisoner issue. He also accused security forces of violating the current temporary ceasefire.

But Bello said he would still push for agreement on a permanent ceasefire.

“The prisoners’ issue has no bearing on the signing of a bilateral ceasefire,” he said.

The government estimates the communist New People’s Army (NPA) has about 4,000 fighters, down from a peak of 26,000 in the 1980s.

But the NPA remains particularly active in rural areas of the archipelago, where its fighters are well known for extorting money from local businesses. Their regular deadly attacks on police and military forces also occasionally reach into urban areas.

In 2002, the US Department of State designated the Communist Party of the Philippines and the NPA foreign terrorist organizations. —REPORTS FROM KARLOS MANLUPIG, LEILA B. SALAVERRIA AND AFP