La Niña: Rainy ‘ber’ months

Rains could continue through the usually dry and cool ‘ber’ months because of the possibility the La Nina phenomenon would affect the country, particularly its eastern portion, weather forecasters said on Wednesday.

“La Niña” refers to cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and it is associated with more rainfall than usual.

There’s still a 55 to 60 percent possibility that La Niña will affect the Philippines later this year, “the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said but added it is expected it to be “weak” and “short-lived.

In a press briefing, Analiza Solis of Pagasa’s Climatological and Agrometeorological division warned against “underestimating” even a weak La Niña, as above-normal rainfall is  expected over some parts of the country in the coming months. And five to 12 tropical cyclones are still expected to hit the Philippines from September to December, which may already trigger floods and landslides in vulnerable areas.

The La Niña was likely to develop in either late September or October, and may last through the rest of the year, she added.

“There will be more rainfall than normal, based on forecasts of Pagasa based on recent conditions and sea surface temperature anomalies,” Solis said, when asked what the possible effects of La Niña would be. It will most likely be felt in “areas that normally have a high amount of rainfall, or the eastern portion of the country, including portions of Isabela,” Solis said.

Typhoon Dindo

By September or October, the southwest monsoon (Habagat) is expected to shift and give way to cooler northeast winds (Amihan).

Meanwhile, Typhoon “Dindo” (international name: Lionrock) has entered the Philippine area of responsibility but is not expected to make landfall or directly affect the country.

Dindo entered the Philippine area of responsibility at 1 p.m. yesterday, spotted at 1,200 kilometers east-northeast of Itbayat, Batanes. It was packing maximum sustained winds of 130 kilometers per hour near the center and gustiness of up to 160 kph, the weather bureau said in its first update on the typhoon.

Pagasa said the typhoon was not expected to make landfall, nor have any immediate “direct effect” on the country. No public storm signal has been raised yet.

“[Dindo] is not expected to move nearer to the country, rather, it will stay in northeastern portion of the PAR,” said Pagasa weather division chief Esperanza Cayanan.

Estimated rainfall amount is moderate to heavy within the 500-km diameter of the typhoon.