Adios El Niño, hello La Niña

The country’s rainy season has finally begun and drought-stricken farmers may expect relief in the coming months from the exceptionally strong El Niño dry spell since last year, the weather bureau said.

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) declared the onset of the rainy season on Tuesday due to consecutive days of rainfall over the western side of the country, but also warned that La Niña is coming.

While El Niño is associated with drought in the country due to below normal rainfall, La Niña is associated with flashfloods due to above normal rainfall.

Pagasa said the widespread rainfall experienced in the past few days and the change in the wind system from the easterlies to the south to southwest direction suggested the start of the rainy season.

“These prominent changes suggest a strong manifestation of the shift from dry season to wet season. The onset of the rainy season associated with the southwest monsoon (or “habagat”) is now in progress,” Pagasa deputy administrator Landrico Dalida told a news conference Tuesday.

He said El Niño was weakening and was expected to end in July but “La Niña conditions are favored to follow during the second half of 2016.”

“We are estimating that in the next two to three days there will be more rains. It’s about time to tell everybody that the rainy season is now in progress,” Pagasa weather services assistant chief Anthony Lucero said.

Lucero said the worst of El Niño seemed over since the rains had already started.

“We expected that the worst impact of El Niño will be felt in May. As we end (the month), it seems (the impact) was not really that bad. Yes,  we were affected but not that bad,” he said.

He said with rains expected in the coming months, the number of provinces suffering from drought or dry spell would also go down.

In April, 28 provinces mostly in Mindanao were officially declared in drought due to below normal rainfall. This month, 37 provinces are expected to be in drought.

Pagasa weather division chief Esperanza Cayanan said heavy rains usually begin in July, but the peak of the rainy season is in August.

The destructive typhoons are usually experienced from October to December.

“Since we have a projection of an incoming La Niña  we expect we will experience more rains. We have to prepare for La Niña,” Cayanan said.

Pagasa said no cyclones were forecast in May and June, due to the impact of El Niño.

But from July to October, eight to 17 cyclones are expected.

Lucero said while El Niño was weakening, its impact would continue to be felt until August.

“There’s still an ongoing El Niño  We expect that this will end by late July,” he said, adding that the amount of rains in the past days were still below normal.

He said the country would continue to feel the impact of El Niño until August when La Nina is expected to develop.

“By the end of the year, we’ll have a La Niña episode that will continue in the coming months,” Lucero said.

With La Niña more rainfall is expected over the eastern side of the country.