DEMOCRATIC DUEL It’s a toss-up between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. AP
DES MOINES, Iowa—Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders hope to translate voter enthusiasm into victories in the surprisingly tight Iowa caucuses on Monday, as Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Hillary Clinton bank on sophisticated get-out-the vote operations.
The Iowa caucuses kick off the 2016 presidential nominating contests, marking a new phase in a tumultuous election that has exposed Americans’ deep frustration with Washington and given rise to candidates whom few expected to present a serious challenge for their party’s nomination when they first entered the race.
The caucuses will also provide a big test on whether the large enthusiastic crowds turning out at rallies for Trump and Sanders will turn into actual votes when Iowans gather on a wintry night for meetings at schools, libraries and even private homes in the first in a series of state-by-state nominating contests.
Iowa offers only a small contingent of the delegates who will determine the nominees at each party’s national nominating convention in July.
But those candidates exceeding expectations will gain a burst of momentum heading into New Hampshire with its Feb. 9 primary and other early voting states. The caucus results should also help winnow the crowded Republican field of nearly a dozen candidates.
Unlike in primaries, where voters can cast their ballots throughout the day, the caucuses begin across Iowa at 7 p.m. CST (0100 GMT Tuesday, 8 a.m. in Manila). Democrats will gather at 1,100 locations and Republicans at nearly 900 spots.
Close in both parties
After months of campaigning and more than $150 million already spent on advertising, the race for supremacy in Iowa is close in both parties. Among Republicans, Trump appears to hold a slim edge over Cruz, a fiery senator from Texas.
Clinton and Sanders on Monday found themselves in a surprisingly tight Democratic race, reviving memories of the former US secretary of state’s disappointing showing in Iowa eight years ago when she lost to Barack Obama.
In the last major preference poll before the caucuses, Trump, the billionaire real estate mogul, had the support of 28 percent of likely caucus-goers, with Cruz at 23 percent and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 15 percent.
The Iowa Poll, published by The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg, also found Clinton with 45-percent support to Sanders’ 42 percent.
REPUBLICAN RACE Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are the leading contenders of the Republicans in the US presidential race nomination. AP/AFP
The poll of 602 likely Republican caucus-goers and 602 likely Democratic caucus-goers was taken on Tuesday to Friday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
“Stick with me,” Clinton said as she rallied supporters on Sunday. “Stick with a plan. Stick with experience.”
Clinton, who has more support among older voters regularly showing up for the caucuses, said she had been subjected to “years of scrutiny, and I’m still standing.”
On ABC’s “This Week,” she said: “I feel vetted. I feel ready. I feel strong, and I think I’m the best person to be the nominee and to defeat whoever they nominate in November.”
‘Let’s make history’
Sanders, the Vermont senator who has been generating big, youthful crowds across the state, urged voters to help him “make history” with a win in Iowa.
His victory will hinge on a huge turnout at the caucuses, according to analysts.
“People are really enthusiastic, and if people come out to vote, I think you’re going to look at one of the biggest political upsets in the modern history of our country,” Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist, told CNN’s “State of the Union.”
In a show of financial strength, Sanders’ campaign announced on Sunday it raised $20 million in January alone, suggesting the senator will continue to match front-runner Clinton’s vast resources.
While Sanders has a large team in Iowa, his operation got off to a later start, particularly compared with Clinton, who has had staff on the ground in the state for nearly a year.
Test for Trump
Monday’s contest will also offer the first hard evidence of whether Trump can turn the legion of fans drawn to his plainspoken populism into voters.
The scope of his organization in Iowa is a mystery, though Trump himself has intensified his campaign schedule during the final sprint, including a pair of rallies on Monday.
Trump and other Republican candidates attended church services on Sunday—in part, a testament to the influence that evangelical Christians wield in the Republican contest.
Trump attended services in the nondenominational First Christian Orchard Campus in Council Bluffs with his wife, Melania, and two staffers.
The billionaire took communion when it was passed, but initially he mistook the silver plates being circulated around the auditorium, and dug several bills out of his pocket.
“I thought it was for offering,” he said with a laugh to his staff.
Consistent conservative
Cruz, who describes himself as a “consistent conservative,” is relying on a strong get-out-the-vote operation to overtake Trump, who is hoping his star power will boost turnout among nontraditional caucus participants.
“I don’t have to win” in Iowa, Trump said, before adding that he believes he has “a good chance” of victory.
Cruz has modeled his campaign after past Iowa winners, visiting all of the state’s 99 counties and courting influential evangelical and conservative leaders.
With the state seemingly tailor-made for his brand of uncompromising conservatism, a loss to Trump will likely be viewed as a failure to meet expectations.
Cruz has spent the closing days of the Iowa campaign focused intensely on Rubio, trying to ensure the Florida senator doesn’t inch into second place.
Rubio is viewed by many Republicans as a more mainstream alternative to Trump and Cruz, though he’ll need to stay competitive in Iowa in order to maintain his viability.
Cruz said on “Fox News Sunday” that he was attracting “the old Reagan coalition” ranging from antiestablishment conservatives to working-class Democrats.
The Texas senator directed most of his final advertising against Rubio as the senators’ feud intensified at the Iowa finish line.
Cruz took to the airwaves to challenge the conservative credentials of Rubio. One ad said of Rubio: “Tax hikes. Amnesty. The Republican Obama.”
Pragmatic choice
Rubio, who has pitched himself as the pragmatic choice for Republicans who want to win the November election, countered on CNN that Cruz “was always looking to take whatever position it takes to win votes or raise money.”
Later, Rubio downplayed differences among the Republican hopefuls, casting himself as the party’s best hope against the Democrats.
“It’s not just about who you like the most. It’s about who gives us the best chance of winning. That matters,” he said at the University of Northern Iowa.
Rubio is hoping to finish at least a strong third in Iowa, giving him an edge in the battle to emerge as the favorite of the party establishment heading into New Hampshire, where he will face former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
The Republican turnout is expected to top the previous record of 120,000 people in 2012.
Democrats also expect a strong turnout, though not nearly as large as the record-setting 240,000 people who caucused in the 2008 contest between Clinton, Obama and John Edwards. AP