Aquino endorsement power -26 in Metro

INQUIRER FILE PHOTO

ELECTION strategists of the ruling Liberal Party (LP), take note.

Former Interior Secretary Mar Roxas, the LP standard-bearer, may not benefit at all from President Aquino’s endorsement if results of a recent survey are any guide.

Worse, Mr. Aquino’s endorsement may cost Roxas crucial votes not just across the country but also in Metro Manila in the May 2016 elections.

Voters will not probably favor a candidate endorsed by Mr. Aquino, results of the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey showed.

Mr. Aquino got a -6 net effect of endorsement (percentage of those who will probably vote for the candidate minus those who will probably vote against him/her) in the privately commissioned SWS survey conducted from Nov. 26 to 28.

In Metro Manila, the impact of the President’s endorsement was a huge -26 percent.

The net effect of endorsement by past Presidents was also negative. It was -6 for Joseph Estrada, -16 for Fidel Ramos and -34 for Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

The survey showed that a recommendation from the voters’ local officials, church leader or relatives would likely have a positive effect.

Respondents said they would most probably vote for a candidate endorsed by their mayor, who has a +15 net effect of endorsement.

The net effect of endorsement of one’s church leader is +14. Both the barangay captain and relatives have a +13 net effect of endorsement, while it is +12 for one’s governor and +11 for one’s congressman. Given the margin of error of plus-or-minus 3 percentage points, the effect of their endorsement will more or less be the same.

SWS asked respondents of the question, “If the following will recommend a candidate, what would you probably do? Would you probably vote for, probably vote against the candidate recommended or the recommendation would not have an effect on your vote, or you don’t know this person?”

The question is part of a special survey on voter preferences commissioned by a Davao businessman.

SWS interviewed 1,200 respondents nationwide and used a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3 percentage points for national percentages and plus-or-minus 6 percentage points for area percentages.

By geographical area, candidates endorsed by one’s mayor will most probably be favored by voters in Metro Manila (+14) and in Mindanao (+27), while voters in Luzon outside Metro Manila will most probably pick a candidate approved by one’s church leader (+10) and one’s governor (+10), Voters in the Visayas will most probably choose a candidate recommended by their barangay captain (+25).

Respondents from Classes ABC will most probably vote for a candidate endorsed by their mayor (+25) and barangay captain (+25).

Voters from Class D will most probably pick a candidate approved by their mayor (+13) and church leader (+13) while voters from Class E will most probably choose a candidate endorsed by their barangay captain (+24). Inquirer Research