The weather bureau is monitoring a growing tropical storm in the Pacific currently threatening Guam which may come near the country.
The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said that with the strongest El Niño episode on record causing global weather havoc, chances were high that Tropical Storm “In-fa” (international name) would recurve to the open sea before it reaches the country’s borders.
Pagasa senior forecaster Jori Luiz said that without El Niño, cyclones usually make landfall over Luzon or the Visayas during the last quarter of the year.
“But the weather system is disrupted by El Niño so many cyclones during El Niño recurve. So for now we are saying this (cyclone) will recurve either before it reaches PAR (Philippine area of responsibility) or shortly after reaching PAR,” Luiz said.
He said the prevailing high pressure area in the East Philippine Sea would determine whether the cyclone will hit land after all.
“If the high pressure area will not weaken or recede, definitely (the cyclone) will make landfall. So we are monitoring the high pressure area,” Luiz said.
If Tropical Storm In-fa hits the country, it will only be the 13th cyclone to hit the country this year compared to an average of 18 to 20 cyclones annually.
By early next week, when the storm gets closer and likely to intensify into a typhoon, they will be able to better map the cyclone’s track, Luiz said.
The last and so far the strongest cyclone to hit the country this year was Typhoon “Lando” (international name: Koppu) which pummeled northern and central Luzon from Oct. 18 to 20.
Global weather agencies have warned that El Niño, characterized by an unusual rise in sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, will peak during the last quarter of 2015 and last until mid-2016.
Pagasa has warned of severe dry conditions while El Niño lasts.
The world is also experiencing record high temperatures, making this year the hottest on record.