Taking the Visayas votes by strategy

With a total voting population of over 10 million, the Visayas can make or break the presidential bid of any candidate in next year’s elections. Thus, it does not come as a surprise that the Aquino administration’s standard-bearer Manuel “Mar” Roxas II is already consolidating supporters in the region he considers his bailiwick.

In this game called politics, rivals of Roxas, a former interior secretary picked by President Aquino to be his successor and the Liberal Party’s (LP) presidential candidate, are also working to undermine his perceived strength in the Visayas to their advantage.

Rep. Jerry Treñas (Iloilo City), head of the Liberal Party’s Western Visayas council, is confident of a Roxas win, mainly propped up by the “Visayan Vote,” under a strategy that, he says, has factored in the presidential bids of Senators Grace Poe and Miriam Defensor-Santiago.

Santiago is a native of Iloilo, while Poe’s adoptive mother, actress Susan Roces, belongs to the Locsin clan in Negros Occidental province and that her adoption document states that she was found in Iloilo.

Roxas’ father, the late former Sen. Gerardo “Gerry” Roxas who was among the opposition leaders during the Marcos dictatorship, was from Capiz province. His mother, Judy Araneta-Roxas, considered the clan’s matriarch, traces her roots to Bago City in Negros Occidental province.

LP poll strategy

Treñas, who heads the LP’s commission on organization and membership, says the party’s poll strategy seeks to extract the biggest number of votes in Western, Central and Eastern Visayas to cover smaller margins or deficits in “Balance Luzon,” a survey area referring to regions in Luzon other than Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal and Quezon) and Mimaropa (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon and Palawan).

Roxas currently counts the support of all governors throughout the Visayas after the LP forged alliances with opposing parties and political clans, and settled internal party disputes and frictions. The ruling party also gave concessions to regional political blocs and parties.

The alliances and support for former rivals, however, have also triggered dissension and splits among administration supporters.

Iloilo, Capiz

In Iloilo, the party has allied itself with Abyan Ilonggo by agreeing to support the regional party’s candidates in the province. But it may lose its ties with the politically active Tupas and Garin families after Rep. Niel “Junjun” Tupas Jr. (fifth district) decided to run for vice governor against Guimbal Mayor Christine Garin.

In Capiz province, the LP has managed to unify all local parties in favor of Roxas. The erstwhile lone opposition leader, Rep. Fredenil Castro, head of the National Unity Party (NUP) whose bloc has traditionally dominated the second congressional district, now backs the LP candidate.

The LP managed to prevent conflict between two allies—Vice Gov. Esteban Evan “Nonoy” Contreras and Rep. Antonio del Rosario—by persuading the former to seek reelection instead of challenging the latter’s gubernatorial bid.

It has resolved the rift between Mayor Alan Celino of Roxas City, the capital, and his vice mayor, Ronnie Dadivas, who agreed not to challenge him in next year’s contest.

Cebu

In Cebu province, the LP enjoys the support of at least 80 percent of its mayors despite the defection of some members and allies.

Mayor Antonio Canoy of San Fernando town, a longtime LP member, has joined the Nationalist People’s Coalition after the party did not support his congressional candidacy in the first district and instead favored his opponent, reelectionist Rep. Gerald Anthony Samsam Gullas Jr.

Gullas is a grandson of political veteran, former Rep. Eduardo Gullas of the Alayon party, which has controlled the district for years and has thrown its support for Roxas even if it is with the Nacionalista Party.

The Ouanos, a politically dominant family in Mandaue City, also bolted from the LP after the party decided to support the mayoral bid of Rep. Gabriel Luis Quisumbing (sixth district), whose family owns the Norkis Group of Companies.

Mandaue Councilor Emmarie “Lolypop” Ouano-Dizon is running against Quisumbing, after she and her father, Board Member Thadeo Ouano, joined One Cebu of the Garcias. One Cebu has yet to declare its choice for a presidential candidate.

Aside from Alayon, the LP has an existing alliance with Bakud party, which controls the fifth district. But it might lose its link after Rep. Joseph Ace Durano (fifth district) agreed to be Poe’s campaign manager.

His brother, Danao Vice Mayor Red Durano, says Bakud will support LP’s local candidates but has not decided whom to support for President.

If it goes for Poe, Roxas will still win in the province with the senator a close second, reelectionist Sen. Sergio “Serge” Osmeña III says. While the Duranos’ support for Poe would slash Roxas’ margin, it would not be enough for the senator to win in Cebu, he adds.

Vice President Jejomar

Binay, presidential candidate of the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA), enjoys the support of reelectionist Mayor Michael Rama of Cebu City and Mayor John Osmeña of Toledo City.

UNA bets

The UNA and its allies are also fielding candidates in Iloilo City and in the provinces of Aklan, Guimaras and Antique. They include reelectionist Antique Gov. Rhodora Cadiao, former Aklan Gov. Carlito Marquez who is running for congressman, and former Guimaras Gov. Felipe Nava who wants to reclaim his post.

With her being part of NUP, Cadiao says she “leans” toward Roxas.

In Negros Occidental, Roxas’ grip is being challenged by Poe. A group of businessmen, civic leaders and professionals has formed a movement to support the senator.

There are talks that Rep. Alfredo Abelardo “Albee” Benitez (third district) will leave the LP and join Poe after allies and supporters were seen in the launching program of Poe’s candidacy. Benitez, the fourth richest congressman, is LP provincial chair but has filed a certificate of candidacy to seek reelection as an independent.

On Oct. 7, LP president Joseph Emilio Abaya designated former Gov. Rafael Coscolluela as provincial chair with authority to nominate and issue certificates of nomination to party candidates in Negros Occidental.