Climate action plans of 146 nations may lower global temperature

The consolidated climate commitments of 146 countries, including the Philippines, may contribute to the lowering of global temperatures in the long-term, a United Nations (UN) body said Friday.

“The INDCs (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions) have the capability of limiting the forecast temperature rise to around 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100, by no means enough but a lot lower than the estimated four, five, or more degrees of warming projected by many prior to the INDCs,” Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said in a statement.

It will also lead to a fall in per capita emissions in the next 15 years.

The synthesized report on the INDCs, submitted over the past months, showed that global average emissions per capita can go down by as much as 8 percent in 2025 and 9 percent in 2030 if the parties will adhere to their commitments.

However, the UNFCCC secretariat said it “does not directly assess implications for temperature change by the end of the century under the INDCs because information on emissions beyond 2030 is required.” Instead, it cites independent analyses that estimate the impact of the INDCs “to a range  of average estimates below, at or above 3 degrees Celsius.”

The solicited commitments are in preparation for the climate negotiations that will be held in Paris at the end of the year.

The goal of the 21st Conference of Parties is to produce a legally-binding agreement to address climate change. One of the issues that need to be resolved is the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, which have been linked to global warming.

“These INDCs–or national climate action plans–represent a clear and determined down-payment on a new era of climate ambition from the global community of nations,” Figueres said.

“Fully implemented, these plans together begin to make a significant dent in the growth of greenhouse gas emissions: as a floor they provide a foundation upon which ever higher ambition can be built,” she added. “I am confident that these INDCs are not the final word in what countries are ready to do and achieve over time–the journey to a climate safe-future is underway and the Paris agreement to be inked in Paris can confirm, and catalyze that transition.”

The 146 INDCs submitted by October 1 cover all developed nations and three quarters of developing nations that are party to the UNFCCC. These countries are able to cover 86 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

According to the UNFCC secretariat, 86 percent is “almost four times the level of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol,” which is the world’s first emission reduction treaty.

“These plans set a determined course, clearly recognizing that successful climate action achieves not only low emissions but a host of other economic and social benefits for governments, citizens and business,” Figueres said.

She said it will provide “a clear long term destination of climate neutrality” if backed by financial support from developing countries.

On October 1, the Philippine government, through the Climate Change Commission (CCC), submitted its climate commitment that aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 70 percent in 2030. However, its implementation will depend on financial and technical support from developed countries.

READ: https://globalnation.inquirer.net/129069/ph-beats-deadline-submits-climate-commitments-to-un

Below are the other findings of the report, according to the UNFCCC:

* The majority of INDCs are national in scope and some include immediate action, underlining government recognition of the urgency to raise ambition before as well as after 2020, when the new climate change agreement takes effect.

* The report shows that the INDCs represent a substantial slowdown in emissions growth achieved in a cost effective way, making it still possible and affordable by 2030 to stay below a 2 degree temperature rise.

* As well as the impact on per capita emissions, the report shows that INDCs are expected to slow emissions growth by approximately a third for 2010–2030 compared to the period 1990–2010, delivering emission reductions of around 4Gt by 2030 compared to pre-INDC scenarios.

* All industrialized country INDCs and many developing country INDCs are unconditional. Conditional contributions represent about 25% of the total range of emission reductions.

* All INDCs cover Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and many also cover methane, nitrous oxide and other potent greenhouse gases.

* They reflect growing government confidence in the global response by tens of thousands of companies and investors and thousands of mayors and regional governments who see their own sustainable futures built upon this transformation.

* Over half of all INDCs also include a long-term perspective on the transition toward economic growth based on low-emission, high resilience development. Many foresee near climate neutrality by 2050, meaning a point where remaining human emissions are absorbed by natural systems, are stored or used.

* Reflecting the need to factor existing climate change into national planning, 100 of the INDCs include measures to reduce vulnerability and build resilience.