The power situation in Luzon and the Visayas will not be much affected by the El Niño’s long dry spell and below-average rainfall next summer, but Mindanao will feel the pinch since it is much more dependent on hydroelectric power plants, according to an energy official citing preliminary estimates.
“Our estimations are ongoing since we just had our first energy Task Force on El Niño meeting last Sept. 14,” said Irma Exconde, assistant director at the Department of Energy’s Electric Power Industry Management Bureau.
“The critical period is the first to second quarter of 2016. The Luzon and Visayas grids are manageable while Mindanao is the one that’s challenging because half of their generation capacity is from hydro,” she said.
Only five percent of Luzon’s generating capacity comes from hydro, while the Visayas has “negligible” hydro capacity, said Exconde.
The DOE task force is gathering updates from power generators and will incorporate these into an updated power supply and demand outlook for the summer of 2016.
‘Intermittent output’
“We already sent all the letters to the generators, especially the hydro power plants since their output is intermittent,” Exconde said.
She noted that other types of power stations like coal, gas and oil are not as critical since the DOE simply has to spread out their maintenance schedule.
The updated power supply-demand report for the country as well as for the individual grids (Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) should be out within the month of October, Exconde said.
The DOE officer in charge Zenaida Monsada has said that, overall, the country’s power situation is “manageable” even with the El Niño, with energy conservation and strict monitoring of new power plants that will go online.
“Overall supply, including reserves, can meet demand,” Monsada said.
According to DOE data as of August 2015, Luzon’s power supply was at 9,883 megawatts versus peak power demand of 8,889MW. That leaves a surplus of 994MW to cope with lower capacity of hydroelectric power plants serving the grid.
In the Visayas, supply is 1,748MW while peak demand is 1,623MW, leaving a surplus of 125MW.
In Mindanao, supply 1,457MW while peak demand is 1,437MW, leaving a surplus of just 20MW.
Former energy secretary Carlos Jericho Petilla told a Manila forum that the situation was indeed “manageable.”
“However, close coordination among stakeholders will have to be implemented,” he said.
Prepare for the spell
Petilla said electricity cooperatives, especially in Mindano, must start preparing for the long dry spell so they won’t be caught by surprise next year. This means they must start contracting enough capacity as early as now.
“There’s a need to prepare for El Niño because it is expected to last up to next year. There are alternative sources like diesel power plants which can be tapped by electric cooperatives,” Petilla said.
He stressed that Mindanao cannot rely solely on water being rationed by authorities because the priority of the National Water Resources Board is for drinking and agriculture. Hydropower plants only come in third in the water board’s priority.
The former energy secretary said the unusual circumstances require drastic measures to prevent rotational power outages. He said one option is to revisit the interruptible load program, under which private use their own generators, easing demand on the grid.