Senator Osmeña explains top bets’ rise, fall in surveys

The decline in Sen. Grace Poe’s latest survey ratings could be attributed to the position she took in support of the Iglesia ni Cristo’s massive street protests against the government recently, as well as to lingering questions about her citizenship, according to Sen. Serge Osmeña.

Osmeña, a self-styled political strategist who helped Poe in her Senate campaign in 2013, also said that Liberal Party standard-bearer Mar Roxas benefited from the slight drop in Poe’s survey ratings, which he said was one of the factors that boosted Roxas’ numbers.

While she continues to remain on top, Poe dropped three percentage points to 27 percent in the latest Pulse Asia survey on voters’ preferred candidates for President.

The other contenders, Vice President Jejomar Binay and Roxas, were not too far behind, with 21 percent and 18 percent respectively. Roxas’ rating represented an 8-percentage point increase.

Defender of INC faith

Poe received a lot of flak from online and social media commenters when she said that the INC members who massed up to protest the Department of Justice’s handling of a criminal case against church elders were just defending their faith and protecting their rights.

She later explained her position, saying that she was just speaking up for the right of everyone to “voice their grievances.”

Poe is also facing a disqualification case in the Senate Electoral Tribunal (SET) where a defeated 2013 senatorial candidate is seeking her ouster on the grounds that she is not a natural-born Filipino for being a foundling with unknown parentage.

Her citizenship status has also been complicated by the fact that she gave up her purported Filipino citizenship to take on US citizenship, which she supposedly renounced just before accepting a government position in 2010.

As for Roxas, Osmeña said that more than attracting former Poe supporters, the primary reason for the upward trajectory of his numbers was his increased media exposure in the past three weeks.

Aquino’s endorsement

President Aquino’s endorsement of Roxas also helped but only by two or three points, Osmeña said. The votes of supporters of Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte—who announced he was not running in 2016—also went to Roxas, the senator said.

Osmeña believes the standing of the candidates will still change in the coming months, depending on the debates, for instance.

Poe will have to strengthen what had brought her to the top of surveys—her popularity and the perception that she is an honest person—despite being a neophyte, Osmeña said.

“That is important, but she has to reinforce that,” he said in the radio interview.

Roxas is seen as a technocrat, but this is not something that resonates with the people, according to Osmeña. He noted, however, that Roxas has since been altering his image and has launched a more “people-oriented” campaign.

Not underdog

“And that’s the way to do it,” he added.

As for Roxas’ attempt to portray himself as the underdog in the race, Osmeña said he could only be considered one because he still ranks third in surveys. But Roxas has the administration’s resources at his disposal, he pointed out.

“That doesn’t make him exactly an underdog. He’s an underdog only because he is No. 3 in the ratings, but he’s improving,” Osmeña said.

Binay could also be considered an underdog because of the constant stream of criticism that he has had to fend off.

According to Osmeña, candidates always want to claim to be the underdog because it gives them a psychological advantage.

“People are always for the little man versus the big man,” he said, citing the classic Bible story about David defeating the giant Goliath.

“People want to say I am David, but I will win,” he added.

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