Instead of the normally chilly air that lasts through the new year, it will be “slightly warmer” than usual, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).
Pagasa blames this unusual climate to the prevailing El Niño weather anomaly that has become the strongest on record.
El Niño—characterized by a prolonged dry spell and occasional violent storms—will peak in the last quarter of the year up to early next year, coinciding with the country’s cold season.
Pagasa’s Anthony Lucero said most of the country would have “slightly warmer than average temperature” during the period.
Even in the highlands in Luzon and Mindanao, the weather will only be slightly cooler than the average temperature.
The country usually begins to feel cold weather starting late October when the northeast monsoon (amihan) sets in, so the Christmas season in December is associated with chilly weather.
The northeast monsoon peaks in January to February, which are the coldest months of the year.
Pagasa said the slightly warmer than usual weather would be felt starting September.
In the lowlands of Luzon and Mindanao the temperature will range from 22 to 33 degrees Celsius, while Visayas will continue to experience their usual temperature from 24 to 33 degrees, the weather bureau said.
Mountainous areas in Luzon and Mindanao will be slightly cooler than usual with temperatures ranging from 16 to 22 degrees and 18 to 29 degrees, respectively.
In October, Visayas and lowland Mindanao will continue to have slightly warmer than usual with temperatures ranging from 22.5 to 33 degrees. Luzon, however, will have near average temperatures from 20 to 32 degrees.
But from November to January, the cold season months, Pagasa said, lowlands throughout the country will have slightly warmer than average temperature.
The temperature in the lowlands of Luzon will range from 20 to 33.5 degrees; 22.5 degrees to 33 degrees in the Visayas; and 23 to 33 degrees in Mindanao.
Even mountainous Mindanao will have a slightly warmer than average temperature ranging from 17.5 to 30.5 degrees.
However, mountainous Luzon will have a near average temperature from 14.5 to 23.5 degrees.
By January, usually the coldest month next to February, the lowlands will continue to have slightly warmer than average temperature.
But by then, the temperature in mountainous Luzon may become slightly cooler than average while the temperature in mountainous Mindanao will be near average.
The weather bureau has warned that the country faces severe dry conditions from October this year to early next year as the current strong El Niño episode peaks.
El Niño is an abnormal warming of the sea surface temperature across the equatorial Pacific Ocean that results in extreme weather around the world.
According to Lucero, 40 provinces are expected to suffer from below normal rainfall by end of September.
By the end of December, 69 of the country’s 81 provinces are seen to suffer from reduced rainfall. Of these, 46 provinces will be suffering from drought or at least three consecutive months of way below normal rainfall.
The dry conditions will continue until early next year.
Pagasa warned that by the end of February, 65 provinces will be suffering from moderate to severe drought. Dona Z. Pazzibugan
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