The current moderate El Niño being experienced in the country will intensify into a strong one by early October, making the rains very scanty, the weather bureau said.
International weather agencies have been warning that El Niño—or the unusual warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean—will intensify in the coming months and may last until early 2016.
In its seasonal climate outlook for the rest of the year, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said El Niño will peak between October and December and extend until April next year.
“Several areas are expected to experience dry spells and drought conditions. These are clear signs and manifestations of the impact of El Niño,” Pagasa said.
“Most climate models suggest a moderate to strong El Niño will be likely during the season. Also, there is a greater chance it will last into February-March-April 2016,” it added.
Before the strong El Niño hits, however, the country will still experience widespread and heavy rain from the southwest monsoon from July to September.
Monsoon receding
“Seven to 10 tropical cyclones are likely to develop/enter the Philippine area of responsibility,” Pagasa said.
The country has so far experienced two cyclones this month, Tropical Storm “Egay” (Linfa) and Typhoon “Falcon” (Chan-hom), whose heavy rains caused flash floods and landslides over much of Luzon, including Metro Manila.
The weather bureau said the rains associated with the southwest monsoon will gradually recede during the latter part of September up to early October.
From October to December, when the northeast monsoon will start to prevail, the country will have generally below normal to way-below normal rainfall conditions “except for some patches of near normal rainfall condition over Batanes and Agusan del Norte.”
From three to five tropical cyclones are still to be expected from October to December, but the rains they will bring will not be enough.
“It will be drier than usual,” said Pagasa senior weather specialist Annaliza Solis.
Meanwhile, Australian climate experts said the recent typhoons may have fanned the heat associated with the El Niño, firming up assessments that the weather phenomenon is still gaining strength.
“Several tropical cyclones, including a rare July cyclone in the southern hemisphere, have resulted in a strong reversal of trade winds near the equator,” Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said in its latest monthly update.