Four provinces near Metro Manila are at risk of being severely affected by a 7.2 magnitude earthquake along the West Valley Fault.
The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology said Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna and Cavite would suffer varying degrees of intensity depending on the proximity to the epicenter.
In a press conference, Phivolcs director Renato Solidum said more than 33,000 might be killed and 113,000 injured in the event of a 7.2-magnitude earthquake hit Metro Manila.
“The magnitude is 7.2 but the intensity will differ away from the epicenter. In Metro Manila, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite and Laguna, the intensity will be 8 or very destructive shaking,” Solidum said.
The effect on houses and buildings will depend on the structural quality.
The West Valley Fault runs from the Sierra Madre to Laguna, and crosses through Quezon City, Marikina City, Pasig City, Makati City, and some parts of Taguig and Muntinlupa Cities.
The fault has moved four times in the past 1,400 years and is said to be ripe for another movement.
In case of the “big one,” the Phivolcs said Metro Manila would suffer at least P 2.2 trillion in losses, not counting the damage to infrastructure and lost business opportunities.
Government agencies in cooperation with the private sector and civil society will hold a Metro-Manila wide earthquake drill on July 30 to prepare law enforcement and disaster agencies responding to a 7.2 magnitude earthquake.