Phivolcs: Eruption possible within weeks or months

Mayon volcano. AP PHOTO/BULLIT MARQUEZ

LEGAZPI CITY—The possibility of an eruption got bigger with the current parameters shown by Mayon Volcano.

But the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) could not say when, only saying it could be “within weeks or months.”

Edgardo Villacorte, geodetic expert of Phivolcs in Manila, said the 3 millimeter

inflation of the volcano would add more hazard should an eruption occur.

He said in a press briefing on Saturday that the inflation means a volume of magma, estimated to be two million cubic meters or equivalent to 80,000 truckloads of rocks, is still located in the magma chamber that is around five kilometers away from the summit.

“If the new magma goes up to the summit, it will be added to the volume of the magma near the crater,” said Villacorte.

Phivolcs Director Renato Solidum earlier estimated that the volume of magma located near the summit of the volcano to be around 30 million cubic meters or equivalent to 3 million truckloads of rocks.

Villacorte said the number of geophysical events have been minimal with only five rockfall events and one volcanic quake recorded on Saturday morning.

Sulfur dioxide emission was 308 tons per day on Oct. 2, which is less than the 1,421 tons per day recorded last Sept. 29.

He said the decrease in gas emission means the crater is still clogged by the lava dome or lava pile that would cause the build-up of more pressure inside.

“As time goes by, the [situation of the] volcano becomes more critical, there is a big possibility of an eruption but we cannot tell exactly when; it may be weeks or months,” said Villacorte.

He said based on their monitoring, magma has been ascending or moving upward slowly with the speed of only one meter per hour.

“The movement of magma upward is continuous, which is an indication of an eruption. If the pressure increases, the movement can change anytime,” he added.

Phivolcs warned the public not to venture into the six-kilometer permanent danger zone (PDZ) because of the hazard of continuous rockfalls with boulders as big as a jeepney.

No settlement land

Albay Gov. Joey Salceda said there are plans to declare the six-km PDZ a “no settlement area.”

He said the government needs to allocate P600 million to buy around 12,000 hectares of private lands inside the PDZ and buy lots for the permanent relocation of 2,898 families or 15,049 people within these areas.

“Every person has the attachment to place or pride of place that’s why they come back even if they’re relocated, especially the farmers who really own a land,” said Salceda.

He said if the permanent danger zone is declared a “no settlement area” there must be totally no human activity in the area.

“If we buy the land, there’s no reason for them to go back because we will be giving them a permanent relocation area,” said Salceda.

He said if the relocation plan would not materialize, the government would have to spend P352 million every time the families are evacuated for a period of three months.

This amount is the projected expense for around 12,000 families or 50,000 people within the six-km PDZ and six- to eight-km extended danger zone to be evacuated.

There were 12,739 families or 54,537 people evacuated since alert level 3 was raised over Mayon on Sept. 15.

Col. Raul Farnacio, 901st Infantry Brigade commanding officer, said the Army have been using 11 units of All Terrain Vehicles (ATV) in patrolling and securing the six-km PDZ.

He said the ATVs allow them easy access to the river beds and gullies within the declared prohibited areas.

Farnacio said they were able to restrict human activity in the danger zones through checkpoints and regular patrol in the areas.

Meanwhile, evacuation centers in the cities of Ligao and Tabaco and the towns of Camalig, Daraga and Guinobatan were provided, for their entertainment, with 45-inch LED television sets, along with a satellite disk cable, that were sponsored by a telecommunications company.