MANILA, Philippines–Two to three tropical cyclones are expected to enter the country this month but none will likely hit the Philippine area of responsibility in the next five days, according to the state weather bureau.
Although rains are becoming more frequent, it is still technically not yet the wet season as conditions for the onset of the southwest monsoon have not been met, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said on Thursday.
The requirements for the official declaration of the rainy season include an accumulated 25-millimeter rainfall in five weather stations across the country for three consecutive days, Pagasa forecaster Buddy Javier said.
Another condition is when wind flow throughout the country begins to originate primarily from the southwest, he added.
Javier said these conditions would likely be met within the first two weeks of June.
‘Ester,’ ‘Florita,’ ‘Glenda’
The wet season in the Philippines is marked by the prevalence of the southwest monsoon, or habagat.
It typically affects the country from July to September, is very warm and humid, and occurs when warm, moist air flows over the country from the southwest.
As for the potential storms, the next three cyclones will be named “Ester,” “Florita” and “Glenda,” Javier said.
Local thunderstorms
The country is visited by an average of 20 tropical cyclones every year, which vary in wind strength and occur mostly during the rainy season.
Javier said the rains experienced in parts of Luzon, including Metro Manila, where downpours were occurring more regularly, were not yet due to the influence of the southwest monsoon but were triggered by localized thunderstorms.
The trough or extension of a low-pressure area located in Japan is affecting extreme northern Luzon, but it’s too far to affect the rest of the country, Pagasa said.
Weather outlook
Based on the agency’s 24-hour weather outlook, the Ilocos region and the islands of Batanes, Calayan and Babuyan will have cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and thunderstorms.
On the other hand, Metro Manila and the rest of the country will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms.
“Light to moderate winds coming from the south to southwest will prevail over Luzon and from the south over Visayas and Mindanao,” Pagasa said.
Coastal waters throughout the archipelago will be slightly to moderately rough, it added.
Shifting winds
The weather bureau announced last week that the country was transitioning toward the rainy season with the gradual shifting of wind patterns over the West Philippine Sea.
This transition stage is “manifested by warm and humid conditions associated with frequent rain showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening,” Pagasa said.