Where are the clouds for seeding? Sucked out by El Niño

BAGUIO CITY, Philippines—Cloud seeders have had little success in inducing rain but that is because clouds generally have been sucked out to the Pacific Ocean due to weather patterns suggesting the development of an El Niño phenomenon, experts said on Thursday.

El Niño is marked by abnormal warming of the central and eastern Pacific waters.

Rain has been falling on the ocean as clouds are pushed there by the wind, said Landrico Dalida of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).

No seedable clouds

In Bulacan province, Gladys Sta. Rita, president of National Power Corp. (Napocor), which oversees Angat Dam, said that without the rain clouds, teams conducting cloud-seeding operations could not induce rain.

Angat’s water level dropped to 181.25 meters above sea level (masl) on Thursday, barely a meter above its critical level of 180 masl.

Rain seeding was scheduled for Tuesday but experts had not detected “seedable clouds,” Sta. Rita said.

“That’s too bad, we can’t benefit from these rains,” Dalida told Cordillera governors and mayors at the Science for Safe Communities road show dubbed “The weather has changed.”

Under normal summer weather, winds blow toward the Philippine archipelago from Latin America, according to Dalida, officer in charge at the office of Pagasa’s deputy administrator for operations and services.

The gradual warming of the Pacific Ocean, however, has caused certain wind patterns to reverse so winds normally blowing toward Luzon are pushed back toward the ocean, carrying rain clouds, Dalida said.

Harvests may be affected

“The clouds available are not compacted to form a group required and conducive for cloud seeding,” said Rodolfo German, general manager of the Angat River hydroelectric power plant.

Sta. Rita said Army soldiers would provide manpower to help the Bureau of Soil and Water Management conduct the next round of cloud-seeding operations.

Once the reservoir water breaches the 180-masl level, the government would automatically cut all irrigation supply meant for farmers in Bulacan and Pampanga provinces.

This may affect harvests scheduled for the middle of May.

At the Baguio road show, Dalida said the general warming of the weather under El Niño could make pests more abundant, harming some farms already reeling from the unpredictable weather.

“Swine and poultry could also be exposed to higher incidences of heat stress, thus influencing productivity,” according to a slide presented by Dalida.

For the moment, the country is still experiencing “neutral” or normal weather conditions, said Assistant Science Secretary Raymond Lidovo.

“This is summer after all,” he said.

In Tuguegarao City, for example, the sweltering heat has simmered down in the past five days due to rain.

Temperature in Tuguegarao dropped to 34 degrees Celsius following isolated rain showers in the afternoons, starting May 1.

On April 25, Pagasa recorded this year’s highest temperature at 39 degrees in Tuguegarao.

But the temperature most people have endured is estimated to have reached 42 degrees, said  senior meteorologist Leo Buñag, chief of Pagasa’s northern Luzon forecasting division.

Critical water levels

“Right now, the water levels in our rivers remain at critical levels and we do not see this situation improving in the coming weeks,” Buñag said.

Based on data gathered from Pagasa’s monitoring stations in Cagayan Valley, water levels in Magat and Cagayan rivers have dipped, and weather forecasts do not show this situation changing in the coming weeks.

For example, Magat Dam in Ramon town in Isabela province stood at 1.64 masl, or 2 meters below the normal level, Buñag said.

“We can be a bit optimistic if only the weather conditions would show some formation of cloud systems anywhere in the region but that is not happening. Since there in no inflow of rain, we do not expect the water levels in our rivers (to rise),” he said.

An example of the changing weather is Baguio, which was unusually warm even for tourists, Dalida said.

He said the lowest temperature this month was recorded on Thursday at 21.6 degrees. The average minimum temperature for May is 16 degrees.

Baguio’s warmest day so far was on March 30 when Pagasa recorded a maximum temperature of 26.8 degrees.

Rice planting rushed

The afternoon rains since May 1 have prompted farmers in Tuguegarao to rush the planting of rice, corn and other vegetable crops.

Luisito Tallungan, 46, a corn farmer in Tuguegarao, said: “We have to take advantage of whatever good things nature brings to us, especially with the evident signs of drought,” he said, pointing to the dry patches of riverbed along the Cagayan River.—Reports from Vincent Cabreza, Melvin Gascon and Desiree Caluza, Inquirer Northern Luzon; and Carmela Reyes-Estrope, Inquirer Central Luzon

Originally posted at 8:29 pm | Thursday, May 8, 2014