Cyclone brewing off PH, but summer’s still around

MANILA, Philippines—A potential cyclone is on track to enter the country on the heels of Tropical Storm “Bebeng” (international name: Aere), which is making its exit on Wednesday, the weather bureau said.

According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), a low pressure area (LPA) has consolidated outside the Philippine area of responsibility and may be expected to enter the boundary on Thursday.

Although the LPA threatens more rains and bad weather, PAGASA said it did not mean the end of summer.

As of Tuesday, the weather bureau said it was still too early to tell if the low pressure area would develop and intensify into a tropical cyclone.

But should it transform into one, it will be the second to hit the country in May and the third this year. It will be named “Chedeng.”

Forecast models

So far, forecast models showed the potential cyclone could follow the track of Bebeng, which hit the Bicol region before moving northward.

But the stormy weather from Bebeng and the enhanced southwest monsoon that brought rains all over Metro Manila and Southern Luzon were not enough for PAGASA to declare that the dry season is over.

People can still make their summer plans—go on holiday trips and beach outings—but they have to be careful to monitor the weather as this dry season is proving to be wetter than usual because of the La Niña weather phenomenon, said forecaster Sonny Pajarilla.

Be vigilant

“They should be vigilant so that the weather won’t ruin their plans. They might get stranded or worse, they might get killed,” he said.

But until several weather criteria are observed to occur, the country is still in the dry season, Pajarilla said.

One criterion for declaring the end of summer is the dominance of the southwest monsoon. The other is the amount of rainfall, he said.

For PAGASA to announce that the wet season has arrived, at least half of the 10 rainfall stations in Luzon and the Visayas must have a total of 25mm rainfall for five consecutive days, Pajarilla said.

PAGASA said Filipinos should expect warm days ahead as May is usually the hottest month of the year, based on the weather bureau’s records.