Consequences

Are killer-typhoons like Yolanda/ Haiyan, unburied corpses to traumatized victims screaming to get out, the new “normal?”

Confirmed storm deaths stood at 4,460 Friday — and climbing. More than 11.3 million people were affected nationwide The storm lopped off five percent off the country’s gross domestic product, as it hopscotched through the islands .

Nor will this typhoon be the last. “The global climate crisis is deepening,” noted Nobel laureate Al Gore. “We are now entering a period of consequences.”

Sendong/Washi ripped Cagayan de Oro and Iligan in 2011, inflicting 1,453 deaths. A year later, Pablo/Bopha flattened much of Davao Oriental and Compostela Valley. Before them came storms Frank, Milenyo, and Reming. In 1991, “Uring” ripped Ormoc City. Over 8,000 died, as today’s memorial recalls.

Mean temperatures edged up 0.14C a decade. The world is warmer than it has been at any point in the last two millennia. By century’s end, it will likely be “hotter than at any point in the last two million years.” Sea levels here have risen by nearly half an inch—- triple the global increase, note University of Colorado scientists.

Is a deforested Philippines the “new normal?” Forest cover slumped from 21 million hectares in 1900 to 6.5 million by 2007. Erosion jacked up flood-related disasters. In 2011, President Benigno Aquino III banned logging in natural forests. The edict is patchily enforced.

In “protected” 900 hectare timberland of Sta. Josefa, Agusan del Sur, officials last October found 400 newly-cut logs. “Why interfere with this petty business?” an angry resident yelled. Hot logs were uncovered in next door Sayon barangay.

The timber were covertly moved to a next door sawmill owned by a politician, Inquirer Mindanao reported. Yet, typhoon Pablo earlier ripped through the same area and killed three. “They did not learn their lesson.”

Only native forests reduced flood risk, Global Change Biology journal reports. “Plantation forests had the opposite effect,” wrote lead author Cory Bradshaw. The distinction is vital as more storms loom ahead.

There are five Filipinos today where there was one in 1940. Cities reflect this population surge. Pre-Yolanda/ Haiyan Tacloban City, was four times it’s 1990 level . Bloated cities have become “urban time bombs,” says Florida’s Extreme Events Institute.

“Slow-onset impacts” included over-fishing, over-dependence on certain crops and over-extraction of ground water. Typhoon-related costs in 2009 alone, amounted to 2.9% of GDP. “They have been rising each year since,” notes Secretary Lucille Sering who leads the Cimate Change Commission.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned in their 2001 assessment, that climate shifts will trigger yet fiercer storms. “Scientists are now 95% sure that climate change is driven by human action,” this year’s 5th assessment report adds.

So, why wasn’t the Philippines more ready?” asked Max Fisher of Washington Post. “Quite simply, this storm was just too big; with winds well beyond 200 miles per hour and sea levels surging across coastal communities. No country could absorb it unharmed.”

Widespread poverty cripples the capacity to deal with crisis. The country is ranked 165th in the world by GDP per capita — just below the Republic of Congo. The challenge, though, goes beyond just the national treasury’s size

Much of today’s analysis smudges the core issue of embedded corruption. Was it normal for senators to pocket eight pesos out of every ten in their pork barrel? Senators Bong, Juan Ponce, Jinggoy and Bongbong will clam up. But structured sleaze yesterday turned thousands into today’s desperate climate refugees.

Some lead “a double life” by giving money to the church while stealing from the state, Pope Francis said over the weekend. They deserve to be tied to a rock and thrown into the sea. They are “whitewashed tombs. A life based on corruption is “varnished putrefaction.”

“What my country is going through as a result of this extreme climate event is madness,” Philippine delegate Yeb Sano told 190 countries, gathered in a Warsaw stadium starting Monday. They must untangle deadlocked negotiations to craft an agreement in Paris, come 2015.

The Philippine typhoon provided a backdrop of “sobering reality,” executive director of the UN framework convention on climate change Christiana Figueres told delegates. “There are no winners and losers. We all either win or lose in the future we make for ourselves.”

This agreement will mandate both developed countries and possibly emerging economic powers, like China and India to considerably reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to prevent global warming beyond 2 degrees Celsius.

This year, two prime ministers and two presidents will be attending. They come from vulnerable Pacific island countries of Tuvalu and Nauru (which could be swamped by rising sea levels), and Africa’s Ethiopia and Tanzania.

Only 134 of the 189 countries attending the conference sent ministers. Secretary Lucille Sering represents the Philippines. The outcome is unclear.

While we bury the dead, we must retool for tomorrow’s deadly storms. Local governments are the main bulwark. Diverted aircraft carriers to aid from abroad are the exception.

Many LGUs pilfer medicine. In San Jorge town of Samar, the mayor tried buy P2 million worth of unneeded overpriced medicines. The doctor-to-the-barrio, who refused to sign, was threatened.

“Climate change is personal,” Ateneo’s Tony Lavina wrote from Warsaw. “If we fail again, Yolanda/Haiyan would be nothing compared to the coming storms.”