On Thursday morning, the low pressure area or LPA was observed 580 kilometers east of Hinatuan City in Surigao Del Sur embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone or ITCZ, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said.
Pagasa forecaster Alvin Pura said the weather disturbance formed on Thursday morning within the ITCZ, the point at which trade winds from the northern and southern hemispheres converge.
“There’s a chance it will turn into a tropical depression, possibly this weekend. Its movement is northeast, going to Japan, so there’s a chance there will be no landfall in the Philippines,” he said.
By weekend, if the LPA strengthens into a tropical depression, it will pull the southwest monsoon—“hanging habagat” in Filipino— that will bring rains over Metro Manila and Northern Luzon, so the weekend may be rainy, Pura said.
The southwest monsoon usually signals the onset of the rainy season.
Pura predicted moderate to heavy rains over the whole of Mindanao, and light rains over Eastern Visayas and the Bicol Region.
Metro Manila and Southern Luzon, on the other hand, will be partly cloudy and may experience rains mostly in the afternoon, the forecaster said.
In its outlook for Friday, Pagasa said light to moderate winds blowing from the east to the southeast will prevail over Northern and Central Luzon, while winds coming from the east to the northeast will prevail over the rest of the country.
Coastal waters throughout the archipelago will be slight to moderate, it said.