In the Know: Exit poll miss

Results of Social Weather Stations (SWS) exit polls in 1995, 1998 and 2001 were all fairly accurate.

But in the 2004 presidential election, SWS president Mahar Mangahas had to admit that the survey group made some errors in the exit poll it conducted.

SWS erred in declaring that President Macapagal-Arroyo had won in Metro Manila and southern Mindanao when it was opposition candidate Fernando Poe Jr. who carried these regions.

Mangahas said an initial review showed some “shortcuts” in the conduct of the poll but there had been no deliberate attempt to feed false information.

But he said he was disappointed with the number of voters interviewed for the exit poll, which was below what the SWS had expected.

He said the group had expected that 10,000 voters would be covered but only 4,445 were actually interviewed.

While this number was enough for a national survey, it was “disappointingly below expectations” when broken down into regions, Mangahas said.—Minerva Generalao, Inquirer Research