ILIGAN CITY—The rains have come. No, it’s not an official declaration that summer is over. It’s the traditional opening for business of the “vote market” that is an attendant feature of Philippine elections, including tomorrow’s exercise.
In Visayan-speaking areas of Mindanao, the opening of the vote market is characterized by the initial shower of cash, hence its description as “ulan-ulan” (slight rain or drizzle).
In Lanao del Norte, informants monitored such a drizzle as early as Thursday. In some villages of Baroy town, one camp was said to have distributed cash in return for support for a political slate come Election Day.
“That was to test voters’ reception to the offered price tag. It was also meant to draw out into the open the other camps’ counteroffer,” a political operator familiar with Lanao del Norte electoral dynamics explains.
“It’s only the beginning, a signal that vote-buying and vote-selling are on. Exciting twists and turns are expected as the heavy downpour comes,” the operator adds.
After the initial salvo, throngs of people troop to the headquarters of a political camp for a list-up, signifying they have finally decided to offer their votes.
Claim cards
In Misamis Occidental, the election drizzles come not with cash but claim cards. The cards are said to be instruments for redeeming cash after one has cast his or her ballot.
Political operators say this scheme may have been resorted to because of the focused presence of government security forces in the province owing to its being declared an election hotspot.
As poll fraud is eliminated from the vote-counting process with the use of automated systems, vote-buying is expected to be a central trick employed by politicians to sway voter sentiment to their sides.
But Elections Commissioner Grace Padaca urged voters on Friday morning to remain steadfast with their true sentiments in choosing whom to vote.
Interviewed over Radyo Inquirer, Padaca reminded voters not to fail to use the ballot secrecy folders when casting their ballots on Monday because these would ensure that no other people will know about their votes.
She is confident that this assurance of secrecy will prevent voters from being swayed by the many trickeries employed by politicians.
‘Vote market’ dynamics
Although the vote market is bullish only toward the “wee moments” of the campaign, the vote-buying and vote-selling process actually started as soon as the campaign began. This is through the list-up, during which the price tag is promised.
The list-up is done by ward leaders, usually organized down to the level of “purok” (sub-village), who employ some level of political intelligence work to validate claims of support by voters.
But the political camps are not naive to bank their fortunes on the list. They cultivate and guard this initial support base against being swayed to the opponent’s side while making last-ditch efforts to enlist the undecided.
As in business, competition by political camps for the support of the electorate drives the dynamics of vote-pricing. This will become apparent when, after the initial vote-buying run of one camp, another camp bids a higher price for the same votes. This triggers a wave of follow-up vote-buying runs.
As the vote market becomes even more bullish, the undecided vote-sellers are expected to line up for a “paapas nga lista” (catch-up list-up).
In a freely competitive market, the cycle of offers and counteroffers peaks until one party feels comfortable they have the margin to win.
Further, each camp also skims through another’s support base for last-minute converts who can add to their expected vote numbers. This requires good quality intelligence work akin to that employed by corporate raiders.
Through the years, political operators have come up with creative schemes of buying votes. Previously, vote-buys are for individual bets. Today, “packaged pricing” is catching up as the norm.
In a Lanao del Norte town, P1,500 was offered for a “straight six” vote, that is, for mayor, vice mayor and four councilors. In Misamis Occidental, P1,000 was offered for a slate from congressional representative down to the last councilor.
Distortions
It is held that under perfect vote market conditions, whichever camp offers the highest bid price gets the most voters on its side, hence, assuring them of victory come balloting day.
But, just like in any market, there are a number of factors and situations that distort the condition for perfect competition which, in turn, ensures optimal vote-pricing. Oftentimes, these occur with the employment of violence.
Principal is the practice of preventing the delivery of cash to vote-sellers, either by hindering its transport, robbing the money, or intimidating vote-buying operators away from communities.
This is why camps which rely on vote-buying as an election victory strategy employ “mga iro” (dogs) to address the distortive practices of opponents. They are armed goons who secure a camp’s money delivery operation or suppress a similar one by the opponent.
Depending on the intensity, tensions arising from these can lead to violent exchanges among the involved parties.
Conversion
But winning the vote-pricing competition is just half the victory. The most important is vote conversion which, in turn, is also fraught with many distorting situations.
One is the practice of “kopras” or “pangopras.” This refers to the act by voters of having themselves included in the list-up of as many opposing camps as possible just to make a financial killing from the perceived value of their vote. Veterans in doing list-ups are expected to detect this early on.
Another is the effort to prevent supporters of opponents from going out of their homes to vote. This is can be achieved through intimidation, monetary inducement or both.
Camps which have invested heavily on vote-buying may also address this by herding their supporters toward the voting centers.
Last-minute vote-buying, to sway undecided vote-sellers and “redeem” to one’s side the paid ones, is expected to be carried out during Election Day, especially to tilt the balance in tightly fought races.
Amid this market frenzy, nonfinancial factors may make a dent, giving hope of victory for resource-constrained politicians. In Ozamiz City, reelectionist Councilor Mario Ferraren said he received “positive feedback” from his final pitch to voters which contained an appeal for their “boto mula sa puso” (vote from the heart).