Surveys and voting

In choosing candidates for public office, voters should not let themselves be dictated by survey results, Cebu Archbishop Jose Palma said earlier this year.

His advice was  based on the common notion  that survey results can influence undecided or indecisive voters to support leading candidates.

These voters justify jumping on the bandwagon by saying that they would rather vote for a winner than waste their ballots on someone who appears bound to lose.

But surveys are a way for people to manifest freedom of speech. Mahar Mangahas, the president and founder of the Social Weather Stations emphasized this in a forum on understanding political surveys organized last week by the University of the Philippines Cebu.

No less than the Supreme Court in 2010 struck down as unconstitutional that provision of the Fair Elections Act that forbade organizations to conduct surveys within a fortnight of voting day.

The High Court must have known that in the end, election surveys can no more influence a voter’s choices than a presidential popularity poll can influence a citizen’s attitude towards a sitting President.

In fact, candidate Benigno Aquino III’s 40-percent share of the vote in the last elections, predicted in surveys that showed he would corner a huge chunk of the electorate, did little to change the numbers for runner-up Joseph Estrada.

Beyond calling on people to be watchful about  election surveys, organizations that work for voters education  must intensify their efforts.

What was disappointing in the days leading to the 2010  presidential elections was not  the flourishing of surveys but the appearance of names like Estrada, an ousted president and convicted plunderer, for a potential comeback in Malacañang.

In the same way, what disappoints in today’s surveys is the fact that contenders for the Senate  are in the lead simply because their names are prominent or top of mind.

A sober view of surveys is not sufficient to remedy this nearly automatic preference for the familiar figure who is not necessarily a good leader or experienced servant.

This time, surveys are telling groups engaged in voters education  what they should do.

They need to go all out in making sure that the electorate chooses wisely, that people consider carefully that there are alternative leaders to those who bear names that were tried, tested and often found wanting.