The rise and fall of Italian cardinals

The election of a new Pope begins tomorrow, a process that is hard to predict in terms of how many days or weeks it would last or what the outcome would be. There is no tanto papabile or leading contender among 115 cardinals unlike in previous conclaves where Europeans, especially Italians, were always the frontrunners.

The electorate consists of 10 cardinals from Africa, 12 from Asia, 20 from North America, 13 from South America and 60 from Europe, of which 21 are Italians.

Papal conclaves ought to have a subhead, “Italian Job” because Italians dominate the convention, but ever since the Vatileaks scandal and talks of a gay mafia controlling the Vatican bureaucracy broke out, things have changed and being part of this tribal bloc may no longer be an asset but more of a liability for some papabiles, like Cardinal Angelo Scola of Milan.

Some think Vatican’s management problems can be partly solved if the next Pope is non-Italian since it would mean “breaking the Italian stranglehold on the place’s internal culture,” in the words John L. Allen Jr. of the National Catholic Reporter. There are calls for widespread reforms in Vatican governance and many think a solution can be had if the number of Italian clerics who dominate the Roman Curia is reduced.

I came across an online article that suggested that a well-entrenched bloc in the Vatican bureaucracy had batted for a quick conclave because it prevents asking questions and favors the status quo. In fact, in the runup to the conclave, Vatican spokesman Federico Lombardi in effect forbade American cardinals from speaking to the media through their daily press briefings, fueling speculation that the Vatican Secretary of State Tarcisio Cardinal Bertone could be behind the media brownout.

The Church is a human institution and its members have failings but after reading UCAN’s “Modern versus Traditional, Two Worlds Collide at the Conclave,” I’m convinced Church politics can be very secular in terms of intrigues and plots.

In any case, if the sun were to come inside the Vatican bureaucracy, the papal conclave can make it happen and the desire for change makes the papal election fluid, one that practically makes all the world’s 115 cardinals, including our own Manila Archbishop Jose Luis Cardinal Antonio Tagle, in the running for the next Santo Papa.

The atmosphere is interesting and recalls the papal conclave of 1978, wherein a little-known cardinal from Poland became Pope 33 days after he participated in an election that picked the successor to Pope Paul VI.

The year was 1978 and Karol Józef Cardinal Wojtyla of Poland went to Rome to join the Conclave that subsequently elected Italian Cardinal Albino Luciani, who took on the name John Paul I. His reign was short-lived because he died mysteriously 33 days later. The conclave that followed pitted two Italians, Giuseppe Cardinal Siri, the conservative Archbishop of Genoa, and the liberal Archbishop of Florence, Giovanni Cardinal Benelli, resulting in their failure to secure the required number of votes.

It was then that the world’s cardinals decided to pick a compromise candidate, Cardinal Wojtyla, who got 99 votes from the 111 electors on the second day of balloting. Taking on the name of his predecessor, John Paul II became the 264th Pope, the first non-Italian in 455 years.

The human dimension of the 1978 Conclave guaranteed the succession of another Italian to the Throne of St. Peter. The probability of a non-Italian becoming Supreme Pontiff was not even in the conversation because two Italians dominated the contest, but the improbable happened and made it possible for the first Polish to become Pope.

Viewed from the human plane, Europeans especially Italians continue to have a lock on the papacy, but 1978 has shown that supernatural forces are also at play.

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Interesting tidbits about the previous papal election:

In the evening of April 18, 2005, or slightly over two weeks after the death of Blessed John Paul II, the College of Cardinals convened to choose a successor. Voting immediately started and the whole process was completed in less than 24 hours. Actually, white smoke was already billowing out of the Vatican chimney a few hours before the evening Angelus but since the white smoke was not accompanied by the pealing of bells, the signal had to be repeated.

The process didn’t take very long because the cardinals had fairly decided that their man is Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger who, as Dean of the College of Cardinals at the time, symbolized continuity. The consensus to vote the German cardinal, whether it was above board or made only in whispers, sped up the process.

I don’t care if tomorrow’s conclave would take weeks or months to finish, for as long as the cardinals take to heart their responsibility which they will discharge at the tomb of St. Peter, Christ’s first Vicar on earth.