A perfect storm

As the Capitol standoff enters its fourth week and suspended Cebu Gov. Gwendolyn Garcia continues to defy the presidential directive putting her in the freezer so to speak, speculation as to how and when she will end the protest action have become a hot topic. However, surrendering to the order of President Benigno S. Aquino is neither simple nor easy because she vowed to yield only over her dead body. She has called his issuance a “power grab” and politically motivated.

Reports have it that the suspended governor is being advised to end her self-imposed confinement because the situation is becoming more difficult every day, not just for herself and her family, but also to their political interests. Initial exit scenarios talked of her getting sick and rushed to the hospital, but nothing of this sort has happened yet.

A few days ago, Police Director for Central Visayas Marcelo Garbo, Jr. was said to have assembled the Special Weapons and Tactics team to forcibly remove Garcia from the Capitol, but the police official denied he was set to implement the “physical” option.

Garbo is now in the national police headquarters in Camp Crame reportedly following up his recommendation to revoke the licenses of firearms issued to Paulo Garcia, son of the suspended governor. This is an offshoot to the fracas during the vigil mass organized by Garcia supporters wherein a policeman was hit in the nape allegedly by Paulo and two of his friends.

Director Garbo and Acting Gov. Agnes Magpale are both exercising “super maximum tolerance”.  Meanwhile, lawyer Democrito Barcenas, local Liberal Party spokesman cautioned the police against using force, saying that dragging Gwen out will only make her appear luoy ug dinaugdaog (pitiable and oppressed).

As the Capitol impasse drags without the police doing any action beyond being visible, and the office of Acting Governor Magpale not making any moves to deprive Gwen of basic creature comforts, the Court of Appeals (CA) 12th Division led by Associate Justice Vicente Veloso did not issue the much awaited Temporary Restraining Order. That would have restored things to status quo ante, a legal term which refers to the condition before Gwen was suspended.

I talked to some lawyers who said the CA has no choice but deny the petition because the court cannot prevent the implementation of the suspension as penalty. To do so would encroach on the domain of the Executive. However, the CA might have given the issue due course had Garcia exhausted administrative remedies like filing a motion for reconsideration before the Office of the President. Garcia lawyers remain positive but they are also prepared to elevate the case to the next level.

The prospect of a long drawn out legal battle does not help the case of the suspended governor especially because the campaign for the mid-term elections has already begun.

Early this month, the Sinulog festival organizers visited Garcia and invited her to dance “one last time.” She has been doing this since 2001, her first term in office. Also over the weekend, she had a foretaste of the festival by watching student dancers assemble outside the Capitol for the annual parade of the Sinulog sa Kabataan sa Lalawigan.

It was not clear if students gave her clips of their dance routines while shouting, “Kang Gwen kini!” but she was clearly moved by the sight of the young merrymakers offering their respect.  When asked by reporters if she will dance in the grand parade, Garcia said she will make an announcement today.

If Garcia is looking for a way out, the Sinulog festivities offer a golden opportunity.

As an ardent benefactor of the festival, the grand parade could be her “perfect storm,” a phenomenon happening in a confluence of suspension, defiance and looking for a time and reason to make a graceful exit.

Assuming she will get out of the Capitol to join rehearsals as Liloan town’s contingent lead dancer, will Capitol authorities lock up the office? This scenario would make it easy for Gwen not to cling to her original position, but what if Acting Governor Magpale leaves the governor’s office open?

In the second scenario, the suspended governor will be forced to explain her change of heart.  Minus a compelling reason, leaving her post, literally and figuratively speaking, would be a disgrace in the human realm.