Distrust in Marcos reflects class divide, data analysis finds

MANILA, Philippines — Why Filipinos distrust President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. depends largely on where they stand in the country’s class structure, according to an analysis of Pulse Asia data by University of the Philippines Diliman professor and Inquirer data scientist Dr. Rogelio Alicor Panao.

Using results from the Pulse Asia survey conducted from Feb. 27 to March 2, 2026, Panao found that dissatisfaction with the president is not driven by a single national concern. Instead, the reasons vary sharply across income groups, revealing what he described as a “sharp class divide” in presidential distrust.

For poorer Filipinos in Class E, distrust is tied mainly to unmet expectations and perceived neglect in governance.

Among respondents in the country’s lowest socioeconomic class, the top complaint was that the President “hindi tumutupad sa pangako” (does not keep promises), cited by 25.1 percent. Another 20.6 percent said Marcos was “walang nagawa / hindi gumaganap ng kanyang tungkulin” (has done nothing / not performing his duties).

“This implies poorer Filipinos are evaluating governance not through abstract economic indicators but through concrete, day-to-day experience,” Panao said in his analysis.

“The grievance is not simply that life is hard, but that campaign expectations have not translated into visible reforms,” he added.

The pattern shifts among wealthier Filipinos.

Among respondents from Classes ABC, distrust was driven mainly by concerns over corruption and accountability.

The leading reason, cited by 38 percent of respondents in the group, was the perception that the president is “hindi lumalaban sa korapsyon / walang napapanagot sa korapsyon” (not fighting corruption / no one is being held accountable for corruption).

“No other issue appears to come close,” Panao noted.

For Panao, the data suggest that poorer and wealthier Filipinos are judging government performance using different standards.

“For the poor, the issue is delivery [keeping promises and doing his part]. For the middle class, the issue is integrity [enforcing accountability],” Panao said.

The distinction matters politically because it points to different expectations from the administration.

According to the analysis, policies focused heavily on anti-corruption campaigns may not immediately address demands from poorer households for visible improvements in daily life. At the same time, welfare-driven governance without visible accountability measures could alienate middle-class voters concerned about corruption and impunity.

READ: Corruption issues hound Marcos, Duterte in Pulse Asia poll

The Pulse Asia figures also showed that some issues often highlighted in political discourse were not the dominant drivers of distrust across classes.

Economic hardship, for instance, registered relatively low compared with concerns about governance and accountability. The issue “bagsak ang ekonomiya” (the economy is in bad shape) received only 4.7 percent among Classes ABC, 3.4 percent among Class D and 0.7 percent among Class E.

Panao said the data “challenge conventional assumptions” about what fuels dissatisfaction with the president.

Concerns about criminality and illegal drugs, while not topping the list for any group, appeared consistently across classes. The issue “walang aksyon / kulang ang aksyon laban sa kriminalidad / iligal na droga” (no action / insufficient action against crime and illegal drugs) was cited by 7.1 percent of ABC respondents, 10.5 percent of Class D respondents and 11.9 percent of those in Class E.

“Recall that a tough-on-crime, anti-drugs platform was what catapulted Rodrigo Duterte to the presidency in 2016,” Panao said.

Other politically contentious issues appeared to have limited impact on distrust ratings. According to the analysis, the West Philippine Sea issue and the arrest of former president Rodrigo Duterte “remain socially marginal drivers of distrust” despite generating political attention online and in national discussions.

The findings come as public surveys continue to be treated as indicators of political momentum and public confidence. But Panao argued that looking only at approval and trust numbers misses a more important question: Why does distrust emerge in the first place?

“We have all heard or read about President Marcos’ trust and approval ratings. Surveys rise, surveys fall, and public discussion typically fixates on whether the numbers signal political momentum or decline,” he said.

“A less-examined question, however, is why Filipinos distrust the president in the first place,” he added.

READ: Corruption is top issue in gauging Marcos, Duterte’s records – survey

The analysis suggests rebuilding trust may require a more targeted political response that addresses both governance delivery and accountability concerns simultaneously.

“If it wants to win people’s trust, it must pursue two tracks simultaneously,” Panao said.

“It needs visible anti-corruption enforcement to reassure the middle class that impunity will not be tolerated. It also needs targeted programs that deliver immediate everyday welfare for poorer households,” he continued.

“Different classes are asking different questions of government, and both now require answers,” he added. /dm /atm