Robredo-Tulfo edges Duterte-Marcos in OCTA hypothetical poll

MANILA, Philippines — The tandem of Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Sen. Raffy Tulfo garnered 44 percent support, ahead of the 40 percent received by Vice President Sara Duterte and Sen. Imee Marcos in OCTA Research’s Tugon ng Masa survey on hypothetical presidential and vice presidential tandems in the 2028 elections.

Meanwhile, 16 percent of respondents remained undecided, which OCTA said indicates that a significant segment of the electorate has yet to commit to either tandem.

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The survey asked respondents: “If the May 2028 elections were to be held today and the following are the tandems for president and vice president, which tandem would you vote for?”

It was conducted from March 19 to 25, 2026, through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 probability-based respondents aged 18 and above.

The survey has a ±3 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level.

“Although the 4-point lead should be interpreted cautiously given the survey’s ±3% margin of error, the findings nevertheless indicate a significantly more competitive tandem landscape entering 2026,” the survey report read.

This marks the first time in an OCTA survey that a Robredo-led tandem has numerically surpassed a Duterte-Marcos alignment in a direct hypothetical preference test, the report added.

Previous commissioned TNM surveys conducted over the past year showed the Duterte-Marcos tandem leading by margins ranging from roughly 15 to 25 percentage points.

The Robredo-Tulfo tandem dominated the National Capital Region with 61 percent support and Balance Luzon with 57 percent, while the Duterte-Marcos tandem maintained overwhelming dominance in Mindanao with 86 percent.

“The Visayas and Balance Luzon are emerging as critical electoral battlegrounds likely to shape the eventual balance of the race,” the report said.

Meanwhile, Robredo and Tulfo performed strongest among Class D respondents, garnering 47 percent support, while the Duterte-Marcos tandem maintained a strong advantage among Class E respondents with 51 percent.

In an interview last April, Robredo ruled out a run for national office in the 2028 elections, saying she plans to seek a second term as mayor of Naga City.

Tulfo, her hypothetical running mate, likewise said he would not run in the 2028 elections.

For her part, Duterte has been vocal about her intention to run for president, while Marcos has yet to make a formal announcement on whether she will join the race. /gsg /dm