Japan recession looms

MANILA, Philippines—The economic fallout from the quake, tsunami and nuclear crisis will likely push Japan into recession in the coming months, a survey of economists said on Tuesday.

The triple disaster has lanced business confidence, reduced exports and discouraged consumer spending, the Nikkei business newspaper said after reviewing analysis from 11 major private economic institutions.

Recovery is not expected until the July-September quarter, Nikkei said.

On average, the world’s No. 3 economy was seen shrinking 0.6 percent in the January-March quarter from the previous three months.

For the following three months to June, the economy was seen contracting 2.6 percent on average, with the most pessimistic economist expecting a 7.1-percent drop, the daily said.

The Japanese economy shrank 0.3 percent in October-December 2010, according to the Cabinet. A recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction.

Almost all of the economists said the economy would start to grow again in the July-September quarter on public works spending in response to reconstruction demand and a recovery in exports.

The Japanese government has said the cost of the quake and tsunami could hit 25 trillion yen ($297 billion). Reports from Associated Press, Reuters and Agence France-Presse