No La Niña or El Niño conditions from now till September – Pagasa

Residents push their motorcycles through a flooded street as heavy rains brought about by Severe Tropical Storm Kristine (international name: Trami) poured in Naga City, Camarines Sur on October 24, 2024. (Photo by ZALRIAN SAYAT / Agence France-Presse)

MANILA, Philippines — La Niña conditions are no longer observed or expected to develop in the Philippines and in the tropical Pacific until September this year.

This information comes from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) announced.

Deviations from the average sea surface temperature reached neutral levels in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), according to the national weather agency in a bulletin on Friday.

This means, both the warm El Niño and the cool La Niña are not the prevailing conditions anymore.

The agency also said La Niña-like patterns of above-normal rainfalls in parts of Luzon, most of the Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas and northeastern Mindanao, are “not likely to linger.”

“With this development, [the Department of Science and Technology] Pagasa ENSO Alert and Warning System Status is ‘inactive,’” the agency said.

“El Niño or La Niña conditions are not observed or expected to develop in the tropical Pacific within the next three (3) months,” it observed.

“And ENSO-neutral condition[s are] favored until [the] September-October-November 2025 season,” it added.

READ: Warmer days ahead as dry season begins

Noting the onset of the warm and dry season, Pagasa is still advising the public and the government to take precautionary measures against heat stress.

READ: Pagasa: PH remains under La Niña alert

In January, the agency retained the La Niña alert, projecting weak La Niña conditions to persist through February, March and April.

This forecast has now been lifted.