FILE PHOTO: Residents of La Castellana town in Negros Occidental province observe a relatively calm Mt. Kanlaon on June 4, 2024, a day after the volcano spewed ash and rocks and forced locals in different communities around the volcano to flee. Agence France-Presse
MANILA, Philippines — The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) on Wednesday said the Kanlaon Volcano in Negros Island could potentially experience its first magmatic eruption since 1902.
Phivolcs volcano monitoring and eruption prediction division chief Mariton Bornas made the pronouncement after noting that Kanlaon’s daily average emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2) reached 9,985 tonnes on Tuesday.
This level of SO2 emission, said Bornas, is the highest Phivolcs has recorded instrumentally since 2009.
“Dahil mataas ang monitoring parameters medyo anomalous po talaga ang mga ito, tumataas po ang tiyansa na magkaroon tayo ng magmatic eruption,” said Bornas in a Bagong Pilipinas Ngayon briefing.
(Because the monitoring parameters are high, they are really quite anomalous, and it increases the probability that we will have a magmatic eruption.)
For comparison, Bornas said a level of 9,982 SO2 emission for Mayon Volcano would already be considered “eruptive.”
Apart from the record peak of SO2 emissions of 9,985 tonnes, Bornas said 337 volcanic tectonic earthquakes have been recorded in the past 24 hours.
From 12 midnight of Wednesday to 12 noon, 64 volcanic earthquakes have been recorded.
According to Bornas, Kanlaon’s last magmatic eruption was in 1902, but was notably weak in scale with only one lava flow recorded.
“’Yung mga pagputok po ng kanlaon volcano mula po noong 1902 ay mga pawang phreatic o steam driven eruptions lamang,” Bornas said.
(The eruptions of the Kanlaon volcano since 1902 are all phreatic or steam driven eruptions.)
“Sa kadamihan po ng activity ng Kanlaon Volcano ay ganito mga steam driven o phreatic eruptions, ngayon lang po tayo magkakaroon kung sakali man ng magmatic eruption,” she added.
(With the amount of activity of Kanlaon Volcano, these are steam driven or phreatic eruptions, only now will we have a magmatic eruption.)
Asked when the volcano may erupt, Bornas said that is impossible to accurately predict.
“Hindi natin masasabi sa ngayon kung kailan po ‘yung oras, araw, linggo or buwan magaganap ang pagutok ng bulkan.” she said.
(We cannot say right now when the time, day, week or month the volcano will erupt.)
“Kailangan po ay araw araw natin itong inaanlyze o ineevealuate lalong lalo na po sa isang bulkang katulad ng Kanlaon volcano na matagal nang hindi pumuputok ng magma,” she added.
(We need to analyze or evaluate it every day, especially in a volcano like the Kanlaon volcano that has not erupted magma for a long time.)
Due to this, Bornas reminded all residents within Kanlaon’s permanent danger zone to evacuate as the eruption may happen anytime.
Bornas said that based on the current status of Kanlaon, higher chances of steam-driven or phreatic eruptions already pose a high risk against those within the PDZ.
READ: Kanlaon Volcano alert level may rise due to high sulfur dioxide emission
Furthermore, Bornas also warned against the risk of lahar, especially during heavy rain.
It was in June when Phivolcs raised Kanlaon’s alert level from one to two, which signifies increasing unrest.